tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7321229718141307911.post7782923087711553836..comments2023-10-24T01:44:59.579-07:00Comments on Newshoggers Archive: Dr. Doom -- A Global Perfect StormRon Beasleyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04442030471061531104noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7321229718141307911.post-91809299189964086992012-06-16T05:37:19.000-07:002012-06-16T05:37:19.000-07:00I think this is the twilight of this civilization....I think this is the twilight of this civilization. As has happened in the past the institutions have simply become so complex they are unable to respond to external changes. The only question is whether the decline will be fast or slow. I'm leaning toward fast.<br>Ron Beasleyhttp://profile.typepad.com/ronbeasnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7321229718141307911.post-42935274755905759772012-06-16T03:32:49.000-07:002012-06-16T03:32:49.000-07:00You and Nouriel could be BFF. And you may well be ...You and Nouriel could be BFF. And you may well be right.<br>Couple of thoughts...<br>Margins are more significant than profits except if the corporate tax rates the big shots are forever complaining about are even half as bad as they claim there are lots of ways to sock away and redirect new assets other than declaring them as profits. (My favorite is when CEO deductability was capped at a million dollars the immediate corporate response was to make sure their CEOs got a million dollars -- many got raises -- and stock options -- off the books cuz they have no specific value for accounting purposes -- received the new compensation.)<br>And I'm really curious to know what accounting rules apply, if any, trans-nationally since so many companies now have a global footprint. I'm sure there are a variety of ways to charge the building costs, for instance, of a fried chicken store in Bankok or Nairobi that wouldn't work in Cincinnati.<br>That inflation business is a puzzle. I've been expecting a return to double-digit inflation for the last thirty years and it hasn't come yet. I haven't figured out why, but I suspect it has something to do with debt, which has grown to historic levels, and is basically another way of "printing money."<br>John Ballardhttp://profile.typepad.com/john_ballardnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7321229718141307911.post-63601277605657223862012-06-16T02:44:07.000-07:002012-06-16T02:44:07.000-07:00I'm more pessimistic than you are, and maybe e...I'm more pessimistic than you are, and maybe even more than Roubini, because the facts presented to us are always slanted toward the good side. Unemployment is stated as 8.2%, for instance, because they leave out those who are not looking for work and the involuntarily self employed. Inflation is understated, usually, by omitting energy and food from the calculation. Profits are stated in absolute dollars instead of profit margins. Etc.<br>Put all of these factors in real numbers, actual unemployment, inflation based on necessesities rather than optionals, profits in terms of declining margins rather than inflation enhanced absolute dollars, and you will see how bad things are actually getting.<br>Bill Hhttp://billsandiego.blogspot.comnoreply@blogger.com