By Dave Anderson:
As everyone already knows, Rep. John Murtha (D-PA-12) died this afternoon. I was not a big fan of him as he was a self-dealer who at the very least was hanging out with people who reeked of corruption if not corrupt in a potentially legal manner himself. I advocated primarying him for good governance purposes last year, and I stand by that analysis that he and a few other long-term Dems' corruption or appearance of corruption had significant negative externalities.
So what does this mean politically. Instantly it puts another Democratic seat into the likely November loss column. His district had been a core Democratic district for generations, but Central and Western Pennsylvania as a whole has been trending hard to the right over the past fifteen years. The PVI for the district became mildly Republican after the 2008 election as McCain won a squeaker. The Democratic bench in the region is not particularly thick while the GOP bench is very strong. The district is white, aging, working class and dependent upon defense pork, and resource extraction.
In the short term, the seat will remain vacant, and the House Dems will have to find another HCR vote from a previous NO vote. Gov. Rendell has to set a special election date within the next week and a half. That date could be anytime from mid-April to May 18th when the state has its regular primary. It is quite possible we could see a repeat of the TX-22 situation from 2006 when a special election and a regular election primary produced two different winners so there is a lame duck incumbent on the first day in office.
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