By Steve Hynd
Matthew Kroenig at TNR has a theory as to why Russia and China aren't as concerned about a possible Iranian nuke as the U.S. is (h/t @mtwirth).
Some analysts argue that we shouldn�t worry about proliferation in Iran because nuclear deterrence will work, much like it worked during the Cold War. But from Washington�s point of view, this is precisely the problem; it is more often than not the United States that will be deterred. Although Washington might not have immediate plans to use force in the Middle East, it would like to keep the option open.
China and Russia, on the other hand, lack the ability to project power in the region...An Iranian bomb, then, won�t disadvantage China or Russia. In fact, it might even help them. Neither country has hidden its desire to hem in America�s unilateral ability to project power, and a nuclear-armed Iran would certainly mean a more constrained U.S. military in the Middle East.
It's certainly an interesting theory and one to bear in mind. Then again, maybe with their inside tracks - both nations have been aiding Iran's nuclear program in various ways since the '80s - neither thinks Iran is actually seeking a nuke. That's what they've both publicly said and sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.
Where along the trail did DC serious thinkers forget that the only country that actually hasn't been deterred from using a nuclear weapon is the USA and not the other way around. Maybe they've forgotten about the original "buck-stops-here" guy from Missouri & those two cinders, aka cities, in Japan.
ReplyDeleteMe, I think if Iran wants, and why wouldn't they being threaten constantly by most of the present nuclear thugs all in the enlighten Western world, they'll get it. Everyone seems to forget that for small and medium sized easily threatened nations a few nuclear bombs is a very cheap form of self-defense relative to having to maintain the normal unproductive standing army. A few bombs you aren't afraid to use and a-holes mind their own business & you can spend you national wealth on butter and not piss it down the drain on guns and military layabouts
Well said, geoff.
ReplyDeleteAnd it could be a little of both, Steve. (or all three if we count Russia and China's willingness to see the US constrained in the Middle East)