Marja -- Fallujah Redux ?

By John Ballard

Marja.
Remember that name.

U.S. and allied commanders in Afghanistan are preparing for the biggest battle of the eight-year war, knowing that its outcome will reveal the chances of success for President Obama's revamped Afghan strategy. About 20,000 U.S., British and Afghan troops will soon storm Marja, the Taliban's final redoubt in the southern province of Helmand. A town of 80,000, Marja has for years been a den of narcotics traffickers and insurgents, serving as a launching pad for roadside bombs and suicide attacks. If the U.S. and its allies succeed in driving out the Taliban � and, perhaps more importantly, bring a measure of security to Marja � U.S. officials believe it will mark a turning point in the war.

They're calling it Operation Moshtarak. The word means "together" in Dari, a local language.

...While last year's offensive was largely a U.S.-led affair, this time Afghan forces will account for about half of the troops involved. OperationMoshtarak � "Together" in the Afghan Dari language � is meant to signal growing cooperation between Afghan and foreign forces, and the Afghans' ability to shoulder more of the burden of defending their country. "The Afghan forces all have Marine haircuts right now," McChrystal noted of the local troops preparing to storm the town alongside U.S. Marines.

Haircuts.
Uniforms, haircuts... and a paycheck.
The new hearts and minds, you know.
LA Times story here.

In July, when Marine battalions swooped into the Helmand River Valley, the Afghan contingent accompanying them was less than one-seventh the size of the U.S. deployment -- about 600 Afghan police and soldiers to about 4,500 Marines. Marine Brig. Gen. Larry Nicholson complained publicly about the lopsided numbers, saying more Afghan soldiers were needed.

As the Marines seized a swath of the valley, tensions emerged with their Afghan allies. Some of the Afghans fought bravely, but others hung back, reluctant to move to the front lines. Once the Marines had established a foothold in a string of villages, field commanders were frustrated by their inability -- because so few Afghan counterparts were on hand -- to communicate with the villagers they were trying to win over.

This time around in Marja, commanders indicate, a greater proportion of the troops will be Afghan. The size of the American assault force has not been disclosed, but Brig. Gen. Eric Tremblay, spokesman for NATO's International Security Assistance Force, told reporters that there would be more than 1,000 Afghan police officers and thousands of Afghan army soldiers.

Operation Moshtarak is not a surprise.

It has been planned for some time.
And with or without your permission it has your name written on it.
The word we read in the paper and hear on the news is "coalition." but make no mistake about it. This military strike has "MADE IN USA" written all over it.

Marines Advertise Looming Offensive on Marja

Marines Hope Warning of Coming Attack Convinces Some Taliban to Leave

...Until now U.S. and Afghan military officials believed they didn't have the forces to effect the sort of change they were hoping for in the central Helmand town. Now with the addition of forces ordered up by President Obama, the confidence in their mission and ability to carry it out is palpable.

"We are coming," said Nicholson. "Deal with it. Could be easy or could be hard, but we are coming." Given the goals of counter-insurgency operations to bloody and weaken one's enemies while protecting civilian populations, Marines would rather establish control of Marja and raise the Afghan flag at it's town hall without ever firing a shot.

The full throttle approach raises concerns about the possibility for civilian casualties. The area Marines will be operating in is home to as many as 125,000 people. It is densely populated and urban.

Major Gen. Nick Carter, commander of Regional Command South, says civilians will be fine if they just stay inside. "What we hope to see happen here is that population, metaphorically speaking, shuts their front doors, stays put until the forces of the government have control over the areas that have got to be controlled."

...Since Marines now enjoy such overwhelming force in Helmand they can afford to secure a town and allow the nacsent local, district, provincial and national government structures to grow. Insurgents would be in the unenviable position of having to fight their way back into the city, a much harder task.

When the fight for this small but strategically important area of central Helmand Province kicks off is still subject to debate, but Marines here give every indication they'll take Marja sooner than later. It's a promise Marines have made before in places like Now Zad, Garmsir and Nawa. So far they've kept all their promises.

Metaphorically speaking indeed.

Before the reader gets all pumped with a testosterone high, take a deep breath and read this excellent commentary,

Fallujah, New Orleans and Marja, by Derrick Crowe, one of our contributors.

The media is buzzing in anticipation of the impending launch of Operation Moshtarak in Marja, Afghanistan. It will be the biggest military operation of the war so far, and, in many ways, the first fruit of President Obama�s repeated choices to add more troops and firepower to the mess that is the Afghanistan war. Marja is fairly densely populated area in Afghanistan: 85,000 in Marja proper and about 45,000 in the surrounding region. Missteps or neglegence on the part of the military could be tragic, to say the least. U.S. commanders are talking out of both sides of their mouths, promising the revelation of the oft-promised humane war while promising to rain death on our enemies.

What�s got me the most worried is the spadework being done for some sickeningly familiar hand-washing. One could announce one is about to attack a given location to reduce civilian casualties. One can also give said announcement if one plans on taking the gloves off�that way when innocent people die, you can say, �They were warned. They should have left when they had the chance.� The most vulnerable victims can fall into your trap of moral exculpation.

Marja. Fallujah. New Orleans.

[...]

The country is one of the ten poorest in the world. GDP per capita is about $425 per year, and more than a third of that meager sum is consumed by corrupt officials demanding bribes, to say nothing of the illicit taxes the Taliban levy on goods. The adult literacy rate is just over 28 percent. We like to say Afghanistan is a �tribal� society, but in reality it is an atomized society, with geographically isolated social networks having been pulverized by decades of war. If many in New Orleans found it hard to evacuate, the residents of Marja will find it doubly so.

...Oh, and �leaflets have been dropped in the Marja district, urging residents to get out of the area.� In a country with 28 percent literacy rates.

Read the whole post. 

?000?

Forget about trying to do it different. Too many components are past the point of no return. It would be like stopping a California mudslide.
Or an earthquake in Haiti.
All that remains is figuring out how best to live with the results.
And whatever remains of an American conscience which, last I checked, works okay only some of the time.