By Steve Hynd
On the eve of the biggest military offensive in Afghanistan since 2001 - the fifth such surge into Helmand province, despite the area being described as a "sideshow" to Kandahar - General Stanley McChrystal is in all the main media today with an assessment of the occupation's current status.
�I still will tell you that I believe the situation in Afghanistan is serious,� said the commander, Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal.
�I do not say now that I think it�s deteriorating,� he added. �And I said that last summer, and I believed that that was correct. I feel differently now. I am not prepared to say that we have turned the corner. So I�m saying that the situation is serious, but I think we have made significant progress in setting the conditions in 2009, and beginning some progress and that we�ll make real progress in 2010.�
McChrystal is listening to his gut, not the facts on the ground.
His own intelligence chief says the Taliban's "organizational capabilities and operational reach are qualitatively and geographically expanding" and are successfully setting up a parallel shadow government, with morale high after what they see as their war's most successful year. NATO is 60% short of its hoped-for commitments to complement the US surge, leading American officials to panic and plead for 4,000 more trainers for the supposedly key task of getting the Afghan security forces to "stand up so we can stand down". And UNHCR reports that the few Afghans who are returning to their country are heading to Kabul because of increasing violence where they used to live, setting the scene for tensions between prior inhabitants and IDPs as well as for corrupt land-grabbing.
No wonder some observers wondered whether the recent London conference was a meeting of the victors or the vanquished. Despite the Western spin about buying off the Taliban, it's clear they are just papering over the cracks and heading for the exits while Karzai discusses peace with the Taliban as at least his equals.
McChrystal's (famously empty) gut is telling him that claiming credit for the surge in that crack-papering process will be good for his career and telling the truth won't. So he's listening to his gut.
Update: Michael Cohen doesn't believe the happy-talk either, and points out that taking McChrystal's gut feelings as genuine leads to a strange realisation. They are based on only having about 4,500 of the 30,000 extra surge troops he pressured out of the White House "in country" to date. Which begs the question of why he now needs the other 25,500 if things are going so swimmingly, doesn't it?
No comments:
Post a Comment