By Dave Anderson:
Being able to move large bodies of trained, armed men to reinforce a critical node is a high level capability. Many nation-states do not have that ability. At least one non-state armed group, the Zetas, and potentially two, have that capability in Mexico. This is a capability level that Hezbollah has in Lebanon where Hezbollah is the effective army and government of Southern Lebanon.
In Iraq, the largest insurgent tactical groups were company sized formations that attempted overrun attacks. Local militias could number more, but the effective tactical elements were never more than a few hundred men at once in any location besides Fallujah during the summer of 2004.
The Taliban in Afghanistan have been able to muster and maneuver short 'battalions' of several hundred men. The COB overruns and overrun attempts have been made with two to three hundred fighters. These attacks were spearheaded by longer service fighters that are 'Taliban' affiliated but supported by local levies that were fighting for local issues.
Tom Ricks at Foreign Policy is reporting that Mexican cartels have the ability to shift strong battalions of urban guerillas several hundred miles to wage urban guerilla warfare and urban takedowns:
Local TV news in Texas reported that the Zetas have left Reynosa tonight. They've moved about 150 miles west to Nuevo Laredo. Sources reported the Zetas want to take over the city and make it their base of operations. The U.S. Consulate General's office already has confirmed a gun battle in Nuevo Laredo. ... According to the TV news cast the Zetas are already calling in reinforcements. Some 700 Zetas from around Mexico are joining the 500 already brought to the area last week. The Gulf Cartel also called in reinforcements last week and reportedly joined forces with La Familia Michoacana (LFM) and the Sinaloa Cartel."
Borderland Beat has a summary of the violence that has touched off the Zeta redeployment:
Black-clad enforcers from the Gulf cartel over the border from Texas are attacking their erstwhile allies from the "Zetas" gang with automatic weapons and grenades in towns near the Laredo-Brownsville area in a fight over some of Mexico's most lucrative trafficking routes into the United States.
Rival gunmen, their gangs' initials emblazoned on their clothes and their flashy SUVs, have killed more than 100 people in the past two weeks along Mexico's northeastern border, local politicians say.
Navy special forces in helicopters have moved in, firing on gunmen from the air in the worst escalation of violence in the area since Mexico's top trafficker Joaquin "Shorty" Guzman made an unsuccessful push for the south Texas border in 2005.
If Hezbollah's capability is the appropiate comparison to cartel strategic mobility and command and control, then the cartels have already successfully hollowed out the Mexican government's capability to control the northern border zone.
The Zetas were originally formed by guys who left Mexico's paramilitary special forces. They're not just common thugs, but trained in tactics and operations.
ReplyDeleteOver the next decade or so we can expect to see a similar situation in the US as thousands of men with extensive training and experience in urban combat return to jobless inner cities.
"...attacking their erstwhile allies from the "Zetas" gang with automatic weapons and grenades in towns near the Laredo-Brownsville area in a fight over some of Mexico's most lucrative trafficking routes into the United States."
ReplyDeleteCould the police forces of any of the border cities actually contend with say, a company sized incursion by Zeta's looking to settle scores?
And I'll show my age by channelling Dick Gregory, an African-American comedian and civil rights activist, who famously said "how come everyone can find the dope man but the police?"
It's known that the Nuevo Laredo is a prime route. Why can't it be shut down? Everyone can find the dope man but the police.