By Dave Anderson:
Pittsburgh has been a nice place to wait out the current recession. Housing is cheap and never crashed (it never boomed and the state actually regulated the mortgage markets rather intensely), the unemployment is consistently below the national average, and the cost of living is fairly low while the social safety net is in decent shape. Again, not a bad spot to wait out a recession.
Chris Briem passes along a Census tidbit that the Pittsburgh MSA was projected to gain population for the first time since before I moved here due to net internal migration. The population loss due to people moving out of the region has been stopped (temporarily?). We are still most likely experiencing net population loss due to higher than typical die-off rates because our population age distribution is still heavily skewed to the elderly as the younger boomers fled the region in the 80s. But internal net migration is providing a minor stabilizer.
The recession is having an impact on internal migration patterns. Florida, for instance, had a net population loss in 2009 because of the recession. Pittsburgh and Philadelphia actually gained population in the past year. If the recession happened in the middle of the redistricting interval, it probably would not have significant impact on the apportionment of seats as the trend would most likely smooth out. However, the census is being taken in the next couple of weeks so short term blips against trend could have significant but marginal impact.
The basic trend has been for population and Congressional seats to move south and west from the Northeast and Midwest regions. Pennsylvania was projected to lose at least one seat and potentially two seats this time around. The minor population blip won't save both seats, but it could be enough to guarantee only a one seat loss. Conversely, states like Florida, Georgia and Arizona may continue to see seat gains, but minimal seat gains instead of their maximal aspirations because their economies have been hit harder by the boom and thus the bust part of the cycle.
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