The mechanics of beating Altmire

By Dave Anderson:

This is a post on the mechanics of beating Jason Altmire (D-PA-4). 

Due to timing constraints, Altmire will most likely have a free pass through the primary, but he will be squeezed to death in the general election by Mary Beth Buchanan and a pissed off liberal activist network that sees minimal difference between Altmire's current and projected future votes on critical issues and Ms. Buchanan's willingness to vote against progressive critical issues.

Mike Lux at OpenLeft lays out the most basic case for Altmire to get bear-hugged even if that means losing PA-4 to a Republican.  He describes his experience in the HCR whip operation last week:

3. Part of the whipping process is exposing the lies. One congressman I will mention by name is Jason Altmire, because he lied so blatantly and really screwed himself in the process. First he repeatedly told both the Speaker and Democrats back home that he would be there if needed. Then he decided to go back on that promise and announce a no vote, but told the Democrats back home that he had been given a "pass" when nothing of the kind had happened. When the folks back home heard he was lying about this, they went crazy. Altmire's hometown Democrats will probably never trust him, or help him, again.

4. Hardball was played with all wavering votes, most of whom were moderates... We were never asked to pull a punch or back off on any vote at the end - hardball in fact was encouraged.

 Daniel Davies in the greatest blog post ever noted that one should never trust a fibber's forecast even if you account for the fact that you are dealing with a liar; there is no way to change uncertainty into quantifiable and hedgeable risk. 

If Altmire was willing to lie on the biggest and most accountable vote in his career and his generation, what else has he, or will be willing to lie about to his close supporters?  And remember, his progressive allies and supporters have been willing to eat quite a bit of criticism in the past because he has the plausible argument that he is the best a liberal can expect in a rapidly trending GOP leaning district.  His allies would be pissed but understanding if he was upfront with them.  Instead, he makes them look foolish and ineffective.  And that double-cross must be punished for the outside interest groups to remain credible with other marginal allies. 

So we get back to the mechanics of bear-hugging Altmire.

The recent speculation that Jack Shea will primary Altmire is highly unproductive.  Pennsylvania ballot access laws are not conducive to a primary challenge as the period to collect signatures to get on the primary ballot closed three weeks ago.  Certification of signatures and acknowledgement of ballot access should be going out sometime in the next couple of days.  For the May primary, Shea could only attempt to run as a write-in candidate.  Write-in candidates have significant information aysemtry to beat; the lever pullers will never consider a write-in candidate, and lever-pullers are a large fraction of total voters in most SW-PA Democratic primaries.

There is another and more effective way to bear-hug Altmire and inflict significant political (career-ending) costs on him.  Shea should run as an independant candidate in the general election.  He would need to collect roughly 6,000 valid signatures from PA-4 voters by August 1.  That is not a high hurdle as I would strongly suspect SEIU IE, the USW political types, and HCAN would be quite effective at going through the friendly mobilization universe that already exists in their databases.  10,000 signatures that is an even split between pissed off liberals, Republicans look for an easy rat-fuck and finally people who will sign any ballot access petition. 

At that point, union and liberal interest group independent expenditures in field organizing, persuasion and mobilization could support Shea and not support Altmire.  Liberal groups and unions had spent significant money, time, professional staff and volunteer hours supporting Altmire in 2006 and 2008, so this loss will force Altmire to find new doorknockers out of an activist base that is at best apathetic about his continued career in Congress if not actively hostile to it. 

Shea won't win in PA-4 in the general election.  He would just guarantee that Altmire can't win and can publicly claim the scalp as an intimidation tool of enhanced credibility.