Commentary By Ron Beasley
OK, there was going to be trouble no matter who won but this may cause more trouble.
Allawi Wins Most Seats in Iraqi Elections
When the votes were all finally counted, Iraq�s
election left almost everything unresolved, from who would finally rule
the country to whether American combat troops would be able to leave on
schedule by August.The former interim prime minister, Iyad Allawi, a secular Shiite once derided as an American puppet, galvanized the votes of Sunnis who sat out Iraq�s first national elections and clawed his way back from political obscurity. But his wafer-thin edge of 91 to 89 over his nearest rival, the incumbent prime minister, Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, falls far short of the majority of 163 of the 325 seats in parliament that he needs to form a government.
But even with the best of intentions, assembling that coalition will take at least until July, possibly even longer, Iraqi political experts said, and Mr. Allawi will have to overcome deep-seated enmity from the other two biggest vote-getting blocs: the Kurds, with 43 seats; and the Iraqi National Alliance, a Shiite party that gained 70 seats and is led in part by the anti-American cleric, Moqtada al-Sadr, who emerged as a possible king maker.
I think it was inevitable that there would be violence but I doubt that Allawi will be able to form a government which will upset the Sunni. If he should somehow form a government it will upset the Shia and the Kurds. So violence is inevitable - what will Obama do right before the midterms. And he thought health care was tough.
I'll go out on a limb and predict that it will be the Sadr trend that comes to Maliki's rescue. It's been my suspicion that since the ethnic cleansing days, Maliki and Sadr have had tacit agreement that satisfied the U.S. narrative of what was happening on the ground, while at the same time built upon an agreed strategy that would exit (via the hard SOFA) the U.S. sooner rather than later. Watch the supposed enemies blow every bodies mind, and come out in mutual agreement. Maliki will continue as PM.
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