Increasing rates of greenhouse emissions

By Fester

The first rule of getting out of a hole is to stop digging any deeper.  The second rule is to start filling in the hole by creating a controlled collapse of option space. 

We are still digging a deeper hole with greenhouse gas levels and the digging has increased in speed and impact as we get closer and closer to tipping points that could cascade in destructive, non-linear fashion.  Science daily.com is reporting that the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased by 2.5 parts per million in the past year to a total of 385 ppm.

Viewed another way, last year�s carbon dioxide increase means 2.4 molecules of the gas were added to every million molecules of air, boosting the global concentration to nearly 385 parts per million (ppm). Pre-industrial carbon dioxide levels hovered around 280 ppm until 1850. Human activities pushed those levels up to 380 ppm by early 2006.

The rate of increase in carbon dioxide concentrations accelerated over recent decades along with fossil fuel emissions. Since 2000, annual increases of two ppm or more have been common, compared with 1.5 ppm per year in the 1980s and less than one ppm per year during the 1960s.

One of the major contributors to the faster rise in atmospheric CO2 and methane concentrations is the melting of permafrost and tundra regions due to previous global warming.  These areas are releasing more greenhouse gases into the air while absorbing fewer gases.  This is an example of a short term positive feedback loop where increased emissions leads to warming which leads to more emissions and thus more warming.

One of the major concerns is a rapid disruption of the ocean currents and the transfer of thermal energy from the topics to the temperate and sub-arctic regions.  The Antarctica currents are becoming less salty and less dense which means cold water may sink slower and that would slow down the tropical to sub-tropical energy transfer.    If this actually occurs, most of Europe will have Russian style winters and the Indian Ocean becomes significantly cooler as well which would disrupt the monsoon systems that water the crops for 25% of the world's population.

We are seeing increasing costs become more probable and yet we are still increasing the size and the difficulty of corrective action or at least mitigating action.