AQI in Mosul --- two stories...

By Fester:

Last November, the Washington Post reported on the then current Pentagon line on AQI/ISI operations in Iraq --- not primarily an ideological struggle but an economic struggle. It showed an organization that was predominately self-funding through kidnapping, extortion, and smuggling activities.  It was also a relatively small organization:

"We're starting to hear a lot of chatter about the insurgents
running out of money," said Twitty, of the 4th Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division. "They are not able to get money to pay people for operations."

In
a 30-minute interview, Abu Nawall described his work managing the $6
million or so annual budget of the Mosul branch of the Islamic State of
Iraq, an insurgent umbrella group believed to have been formed by
al-Qaeda in Iraq. ..The 28-year-old said he was responsible for running the bureaucracy and
arranging payments to the 500 or so fighters for the group in the city,
who he said try to carry out as many as 30 attacks a day....

The U.S. military has launched a propaganda effort to describe Abu
Nawall and other insurgents as greedy in order to undermine support for
al-Qaeda in Iraq and create infighting among insurgent groups. [my emphasis]

I noted at the time that the return on investment in violence was several thousand percent given the US supplied estimates and that violence would continue for a while.  In that same article, the AQI Mosul financier stated that he was paying off roughly 500 fighters at the height of his organization's size and scope.  Take all of this information with an appropriate grain of salt as this was part of an propaganda effort to wedge AQI and other Sunni Arab group leadership from their street level fighters.

Now this week the Mosul offensive has occurred.  And Maliki is claiming success in rounding up 1,000 prisoners. I agree with Cernig that something does not add up here and the residual is that this looks to be a big publicity sweep instead of anything remotely resembling effective counter-insurgency.  We are working with two different propoganda streams, but it would be nice if the major newspapers remember what they were told seven months ago to inform their analysis.