Plotting the endgame

By BJ

Last night went much as expected. Depending on who you talk to, the Democratic race is now over, more over, or nowhere near over. The fat lady may be waiting in the wings warming up, but she hasn�t started singing yet, (and the reference to her and her size is deeply hurtful and insulting to millions of Americans.)

In seriousness, Hillary probably will, and probably should, keep running for the next couple of weeks. If she runs as she has over the last week or so, backing away from the Samson Option and observing a nominal cease-fire on negative campaigning against Obama, then I don�t have a problem with that. In fact, it�s probably a better way to start the cat herding job of getting all the Democrats back together and on the same page for the general election fight.

For all of the signs that the race has passed it�s tipping point and Obama has become the putative Democratic candidate, how the race will end still depends largely upon Hillary and what she will decide o do.

There are three major events left in the next couple of weeks. The May 31 meeting to determine the fate of the Michigan and Florida delegations, followed over the next three days by the final primaries in Puerto Rico, Montana, and South Dakota. The first is probably the most important. The Clintons have been pounding the FL/MI issue for months now, and its too late to walk much of that rhetoric back.

I went over the calculations before last nights results were tallied, and even the most generous pro-Clinton seating of those delegations still leaves her lagging behind, though the high number of uncommitted delegates makes an absolute majority impossible for either candidate. More likely scenarios where the delegations are given half-votes and/or the uncommitted and Edwards delegates are added to Obama�s total means he will still wind up with an absolute majority.

The results don�t change, but given how voraciously many of Hillary�s supporters have taken up the fate of these two rule-breaking states, it makes sense for the party and the campaigns to come up with a solution to put the issue to rest and to allow the healing to begin. This is why the 31st may be the most important date remaining. If the Clinton camp refuses to accept any and all compromises and takes this issue to the convention, a good number of her supporters will stay with her and we�re back to the Sampson Option.

Before Hillary can concede, or maybe it is better worded as; Before Hillary�s supporters would be willing to accept her concession, she has to be able to plausibly say that all of the voters have had their say and are being represented. Giving seats to FL/MI allows her to say that. (It isn�t entirely true. The voters in Florida and Michigan never got the kind of campaign message advertising nor had the big voter registration drives like other states did before they voted, not to mention not having all of the running candidates on the ballot. And more importantly, the campaigns were unable to build the kind of groundwork organizations that can be built upon for the later general election campaign. That cost will be paid by the Democrats regardless of the nominee, and seating the delegates won�t change it.)

Hillary has earned the right to exit on her own terms, and once all of the states have been counted, she will have the opportunity to do so with grace. For now, my gut tells me that is what the plan is.

If she does so, and if she does as she�s promised to do and work her heart out to ensure a Democratic victory in November, she will very likely win back a good portion of the respect and admiration she�s lost from Obama supporters thanks to her nastier campaign tactics.

And as the Democrats start moving together, things are looking mighty good for the fall.