We Wait and We Wonder

By BJ Bjornson

I'm not watching the RBC hearings, both because I have other, more important things to do, and because the ultimate decision they reach really isn't the important point. What's important is whether or not the Hillary campaign accepts the decision. As I put it a few weeks ago:

The results don�t change, but given how voraciously many of Hillary�s supporters have taken up the fate of these two rule-breaking states, it makes sense for the party and the campaigns to come up with a solution to put the issue to rest and to allow the healing to begin. This is why the 31st may be the most important date remaining. If the Clinton camp refuses to accept any and all compromises and takes this issue to the convention, a good number of her supporters will stay with her and we�re back to the Samson Option.

I was probably overly generous in my thinking that Hillary would be willing to fade away quietly and start helping the Democratic party move forward towards defeating McCain in November, but we're now at crunch time, and the next few days will show us Hillary's true colours. Publius at Obsidian Wings has roughly the same take on the matter.

The truly truly critical event tomorrow is the Clinton campaign�s reaction to the rules committee�s decision. It could very well cost Obama the election � or win it for him.

I�m not saying anything that Josh Marshall and Hilzoy haven�t essentially already said, but it�s a point worth emphasizing. In the days ahead, the Clintons have the power either to unite the party going into the fall, or to leave a lasting, poisonous, and potentially-fatal schism. At this point, it�s not clear what path they�ll choose.

. . .

But this latter assumption � inevitable party unity � is up in the air these days. There�s a lot of bad blood. And what�s really "baddening" that blood for Clinton supporters is the idea that she�s being cheated out of the nomination.

And that�s where Clinton herself comes in. Her supporters will follow her lead. If she acknowledges that her defeat was legitimate (regardless of how much she actually campaigns), then I think the party will unite. If, by contrast, she spends the next few days (or god forbid, months) alleging that it was illegitimate, then that reaction will leave lasting damage. Not just among pro-Clinton bloggers, but among her core supporters, particularly older liberal women.

No idea at this point whether or not Hillary's supporters will actually follow her lead, but certainly a whole lot more of them will come around with her making the case that the decision was a legitimate one. It is clear that if she keeps the legitimacy pot on full boil for much longer, her supporters will continue to hate and blame Obama for her loss and guarantee a President McCain in November out of spite.

And if you don't think Hillary will take the brunt of the blame for a Democratic loss under those circumstances, check around on how popular the name Nader is in Democratic circles these days. The narrower the defeat, the more bitterly they will turn on anyone they can blame for robbing them of a few precious votes.

I also think her choice will have a significant impact on her political future. Last week, the Washington Post wrote a story regarding Hillary's options after her Presidential race was over. She's still a very junior Senator, and it's likely that a lot of her colleagues have found their way onto the Clinton's "enemies list". It's not that she couldn't make a very successful career in that position, but she'd have to willing to work her way up the ladder over a considerable number of years rather than have something like the majority leader position handed to her. Somehow that seems unlikely.

One of the other big options was the New York governorship, but her campaign remarks have left her in possible trouble there. Accepting a compromise on Michigan and Florida, and through that acknowledging the legitimacy of Obama's victory, may be the choice of enlightened self-interest.

So, we wait and we wonder. Will we soon see the end of the exhausting primary season and the beginning of the real fight? Or are we in for several more months of kneecapping?