Clinton's Golden Handcuffs

By Fester:

Hillary Clinton is operating under a severe set of future political constraints that should create an incentive set that rewards good behavior.  Her campaign debt is large and constrains her future course of action as the New York Times reports today:

Besides the $11.4 million of her own money that Mrs. Clinton lent her campaign, she had about $9.5 million in unpaid bills to vendors at the end of April...

her campaign must liquidate more than $23 million in contributions set aside for the general election. They can do it by either returning it to donors or designating it for her Senate re-election campaign in 2012, provided she obtains permission from her donors to do so.

Mrs. Clinton could simply shutter her presidential campaign committee and transfer her remaining debt to her Senate campaign fund and continue to raise money to pay it down...

Mrs. Clinton could also whittle down her debt by re-negotiating what she owes with her various creditors, but the Federal Election Commission would have to sign off to ensure that a good-faith effort was made to pay off the debt. It also must be satisfied that the renegotiated bills do not amount to an in-kind donation from a corporation to Mrs. Clinton�s campaign.

The article states that the Clinton fundraising over the past week has been sufficient to cover operating and shut-down costs but not a whole lot more.  And this places her in an unenviable position.  She needs massive funds from either her general election donors or new money to pay off her debts and to build up a warchest for her 2012 Senate race.  Her political fortunes will greatly differ if she is still five or more million in debt by the summer of 2011 as she could see both a serious general election challenge and a decent primary challenge versus having her account in the black and growing at that point. 

Her fundraising pitch will have to be different than it has been.  She is no longer the heir presumptive for the White House in a very favorable Democratic environment; instead she is 'just' a powerful Senator from a very powerful state. National actors no longer will be viewing their max limit contributions to Hillary Clinton as a ticket to the Inauguration Ball and a place on the Rolodex of senior advisors of the next  administration.

I think the incentives already had aligned for Hillary Clinton to work hard for the Obama ticket as I do not see 2012 as a viable option for her for numerous reasons if Obama was to lose this election.  The golden handcuffs of needing to fundraise twenty million dollars before being able to effectively bank a single dollar will further this incentive set.