By Cernig
"Iraq has another option that it may use," Maliki said during a visit to Amman, Jordan. "The Iraqi government, if it wants, has the right to demand that the U.N. terminate the presence of international forces on Iraqi sovereign soil."
You see, the Bushies want to see the US in Iraq for a long time after they leave office just as much as Maliki's elite wants them to stay to provide them with protection from large segments of their own populace. But he might just have managed to convince himself into believing his own propaganda that the Iraqi security forces could do the job on their own.
Where the Bush administration has gone wrong so far is in assuming they held all the high cards. They don't - Maliki holds the trump card. I fully expect there will now be a climbdown from the Bush administration from their original excessive demands, spun as "just the come and go of negotiations", whereas until now all reports have been that they've been assuming they would succeed in hammering their demands through.
Geez. Maliki goes on one little trip to Iran and suddenly the SOFA is down the tubes and he's getting this whole new 'tude about our kind of lovin'. A jealous type would suspect there's something goin' on.
ReplyDeleteMaliki other option is to let Iran help him hold on to power. As I've said before he is a puppet with two masters. He and Iraq have much more in common with the puppet master in Iran. The Bushies may think that Maliki is their man in Baghdad but he's not.
ReplyDeleteImperial puppets are cheap and easily replaced--and the United States has seldom shown any reluctance to remove any leader who didn't follow Washington's line. The need for plausible deniability would preclude the Imre Nagy (Hungary 1956) option but America has more experience than anyone else at covertly removing governments it doesn't like. Just ask Salvador Allende.
ReplyDeleteChalabi 2009?
Curmudgeon
ReplyDeleteI don't really think that option is available to them, they would suffer a violent revolt from the Iraqi security forces. The security forces are made up in great part by the Iran friendly Badr Brigade who for once would join forces with the nationalist Mahdi Army. Potentially thousands of US troops could die.
Ron is right. Al-Maliki was the compromise candidate, in the negotiations between the Iraqi politicians. At this point, I don't think there is an alternative within the political system set out in the constitution. Maybe things have changed now, but that change would have to come within that system. If the US wanted to pursue the "Diem option", they'd have to undercut and destroy the entire political structure. Wouldn't go over well in Iraq or the US, or that "spreading democracy" talking point.
ReplyDeleteOf course, the Americans would not even need to take a direct action with regard to taking Maliki "all the way out of the picture". Maliki and the factions that he represents...mainly Dawa and SIIC (and Badr as a militia) have many enemies among the Shi'a and Sunni factions (The Kurds are not overfond of them, either, so you can count out Peshmerga support). JAM should not be considered in any way to be neutralized. It seems to me that Maliki's days would be numbered simply if the US does nothinng to aid him. His only options are to fight the other factions to the point of eliminating them (ain't gonna happen) or else to make give them a piece of the pie.
ReplyDeleteMe prediction is....If Maliki is not bluffing as a negotiating tactic as regards the SOFA, then he will go down a road that must lead him to share sinificant power with other factions...especially Sadr's people. Iran would love that, if Sadr is willing to let them pull at least some of the strings over a friendly and stable Iraq government holding a monopoly on violence in the country. Even Sistani would go for that, I think, if sovereigny (maybe with a lower case "s") belonged to Iraqis. This is still a better deal than what the "Far puppet master" offers.