By Cernig
Russia's Vladimir Putin doesn't believe Iran is seeking nukes. If anyone's in a position to know, outside Iran, then he is - and he doesn't exactly have a reputation as an "appeaser".
Asked if Iran was trying to acquire nuclear weapons, Putin replied: "I don't believe so. Nothing indicates it."
"The Iranians are a proud people," he went on. "They want to enjoy their independence and exercise their legitimate right to civil nuclear power.
"I am serious. On a legal level, Iran has infringed nothing at the moment. They have the same right to enrichment (of uranium.) The paperwork says so. Iran is accused of not displaying all its programmes to the IAEA. This point remains to be resolved...."
Putin stressed that Russia was opposed to Iran achieving a nuclear-power status.
"That is our principled position," he said. "Using nuclear weapons in a region as small as the Middle East would be synonymous with suicide. Whose interests would it serve? The Palestinians? Hardly, the Palestinians would cease to exist...."
Russia has an ongoing wrangle with Iran over Caspian oilfields that far outweighs in economic terms any possible trade with Iran, has several Muslim former-Soviet Republics on its borders where terrorists would love to grab a nuke or dirty bomb, and has large chunks of valuable territory (including the Black Sea Fleet's base) within range of current Iranian missiles. Putin is a machiavelian soft-totalitarian and has more reason to be cautious than the US, but he is instead certain (likely based on Russian intel penetration of Iran's program via Russia's nuclear aid) that Iran isn't seeking the bomb.
So when US pundits pull the old WMD lie - everyone believes that Iran/Iraq is seeking WMD - remember Putin.
I know that the idea that Iran might not be making a bomb becomes more and more seemingly remarkable with every declaration by the Bushies that they are, but that is indeed where all the evidence points.
ReplyDeleteThe latest IAEA report said so quite explicitly.
But I have to keep reminding myself too.
Actually, I don't think this is particularly newsworthy, and I say this as someone who is not concerned about Iran's alleged nuclear ambitions. It's not that I trust Ahmadinejad, it's that Ahmadinejad doesn't have control over that issue, and the people who do have that control aren't irrational enough to both create a nuclear weapon AND want to use it for offensive purposes. I honestly don't know whether their nuclear program is for weapons or not (my suspicion is that they are not seeking a bomb), but I actually don't really care all that much...they would never be able to build enough nukes to make an offensive nuclear strike feasible. Instead, their nukes (if they existed) could only serve as a deterrent.
ReplyDeleteThat said, whatever differences may currently exist between Russia and Iran, I don't think Putin has any more credibility on the issue than anyone else. There are just too many other advantages to his siding with Iran on this that go beyond the economic issues. IIRC, he has certainly spoken about the need to end American hegemony, and it doesn't take much to come to the conclusion that he believes Russia should play a major role in that. By backing countries like Iran on issues that place him up against the US, Putin is establishing a lot of street cred with Second and Third World nations.