Sadrists Won't Contest Provincial Elections

By Cernig

The Sadrist movement has said it will support independent candidates rather than contest Iraqi provincial elections in its own right, according to the Washington Post.

The movement of anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr said Saturday that it would not take part in provincial elections this year, one day after it formed a new paramilitary group to fight U.S. troops.

The back-to-back moves suggested that Sadr is trying to bolster his position as the chief opponent of both the American troops in the country and the Iraqi government, following a year in which he ordered his Mahdi Army militia to observe a cease-fire and moved deeper into the political process.

Sadr's aides said he is recalibrating his strategy as the American military drawdown transforms the U.S. role in Iraq.

"We don't want anybody to blame us or consider us part of this government while it is allowing the country to be under occupation," said Liwa Smeisim, head of the Sadr movement's political committee.

...Speaking about provincial elections, which are scheduled for this fall, aides to Sadr said the movement would support "technocrats and independent politicians" to prevent rival political parties from dominating local governments. But they said the movement would not put forward its own candidates.

"Sayyid Moqtada does not believe in elections or in the coming provincial governments as long as the occupation forces are here," said Salah al-Obaidi, a top aide to Sadr and his chief spokesman, using an honorific to signify Sadr's descent from the prophet Muhammad.

The WaPo's reporters go on to say that the Iraqi government's latest push, in Amara, is primarily a response to Sadr's announced intention to form a new exclusively-paramilitary wing of his organisation - but if that's the case why are the Sadrists saying they've already held negotiations with the loval authorities there to set terms which will allow a mostly peaceful government crackdown that will preserve the Sadrist movement largely intact? Whatever, something has Maliki spooked - he's also deployed tens of thousands of troops and police to protect senior clerics in the holy cities of Najaf and Kerbala.

Abu Zainab al-Garawie, the head of Sadr's office in Diwaniyah, said the newly formed special companies would assert their strength by launching attacks within a month, and possibly by next week.

...Mohammad Saeed, 31, commander of a Mahdi Army company in Najaf, said thousands of militia members have been training "inside and outside Iraq." "We believe that now the time has come for these companies to be given the green light to achieve our aims," he said.

Several Mahdi Army fighters, who have been frustrated at the orders of the past year to stop fighting, welcomed the announcement and said they were eager for revenge against the American military and Iraqi forces that they believe have persecuted them.

"From now on, there will be violent unexpected actions that will astonish the Iraqi people, the Iraqi government and even the occupation forces," he said. "Now we will be assigned to fight openly, and we will fight till the last drop of our blood."

Some will see these new developments as proof that Sadr is a spent force - "pulling out of the elections to avoid embarrassing losses and keeping most of the Mahdi Army from fighting so that it will not face defeat by U.S. and Iraqi troops" - although it seems more likely that Sadr is making these moves so that his movement doesn't become a spent force. If it doesn't contest elections or get involved in violence then it won't face attrition by US and Iraqi central government military pressure and will be well placed later to assume more power in post-occupation Iraq. Others will see these developments as proof that Iran is jerking everyones strings to keep the US bogged down in Iraq.

I'm curious to see what the experts make of all this, I must say.

Update: Spencer Ackerman, who isn't exactly an Iraq wonk but has plenty of access to people who are, writes:

The permanent-occupation deal is only barely getting covered in the U.S., but those two Iraqi parliamentarians who came here two weeks ago, Juan Cole and Marc Lynch and others tell me that it�s a massive issue in Iraq. And it was so disastrous for Maliki that on Friday he himself opted not to sell the country out. But it�s hard to wash out the stain. Look at what Sadr is doing. He�s creating �Special Companies� that will attack U.S. forces (!) but not Iraqi troops or police. What does that mean? It means he�s drawing a contrast with the puppet Maliki. Look, Sadr will say, only Maliki will draw Iraqi blood, and he does so on behalf of the occupiers. Such are the wages of government under occupation, and I want no part of it. If you�re a Shiite Iraqi soldiering in the Army and, after this, you�re ordered to attack Sadrists, do you obey orders?

Now, I could be totally wrong about all of this. A much simpler explanation � that we�re sure to hear endlessly in the coming weeks � is that Sadr is operating from a position of weakness; he would have lost the elections; Maliki is everything the left has asked for in an independent Iraqi leader; shut up; why can�t you accept that all this is working? And, you know, maybe. But at every single stage over the last five years when Sadr was counted out he�s come back twice as strong. It would be self-defeating foolishness to discount him now.

And Dr. iRack at Abu Muqawama, who is an Iraq wonk albiet one using a pseudonym, agrees with Spencer:

The goal is to solidify his brand as the true "outsider" nationalist opposition to the U.S. presence in Iraq, avoid any association with the Maliki government, and seek to gain power over the long-term (in the national elections in 2009?) as U.S. forces draw down....And, in the meantime, Sadr will probably still put up supporters in the provincial elections, although they just won't be labelled "Sadrists" and his movement will undoubtedly deny any direct affiliation with these politicians (i.e., the "inside" part of an outside-inside game).

...In other words, it is not a genuine effort to boycott the elections, it is an end-around Maliki's threat to ban the Sadrists from the elections unless JAM is disbanded.