The real problem is Taboo

By Ron Beasley

We all talk about climate change, peak oil and even water shortages.  We talk about causes and solutions but there is one problem few dare discuss.  About three months ago I wrote the following:

What few address is the "real" problem - there are too many people. The estimated population of the earth in 1 AD was 200 million people. In 1800 AD it was approaching one billion, a five fold increase in 1,800 years. Between 1800 and 2000, a span of 200 years population increased six fold to over 6 billion people. This population increase was made possible in large part by fossil fuels. The reality is the earth cannot support six billion hunter-gatherers. The real solution to climate change, peak oil and water shortages can only involve population reduction. Certainly not politically correct so nothing will be done that is significant.

Much to my amazement I found the following on the opinion page of my local paper, The Oregonian, this morning;

Treading on a taboo

By Jack Hart

Each Tuesday I carry the recycling to the curb and look out over a city bristling with light rail, streetcars, bicycles, eco-roofs, and little yellow bins like mine. The greenest of the green, my city styles itself, filled with good citizens leading the way to Earth's salvation.

If only it were true. The sad fact is that unless we do something drastic, out-of-control population growth will wipe out the gains made by the most ambitious recycling and conservation programs, both here and across the planet.

Portland's fevered efforts to stave off global warming by reducing carbon dioxide began more than two decades ago. And how much progress have we made? None. Zero. Zilch. Every day we dump more planet-threatening gas into the atmosphere. Why? Because at the same time Portland's metro-area population has grown by 42 percent. We cancel out every reduction in CO2 emissions with a gain in CO2 emitters.

Projections say the metro population will grow by another million by 2030 -- even double to 3.85 million by 2060. Do you really think anything we can do will meet the goal of actually reducing total CO2 emissions?

Well, maybe you do. A strange taboo keeps us from talking about the actual cause of global warming and a deadly smorgasbord of other environmental problems. In this supposedly plain-talking era, a former presidential candidate will tell us how Viagra cured his ED, but hardly anybody will talk about what's trashing the Earth. Erectile dysfunction's a bummer. But the fate of our planet is a little more worrisome.

The taboo afflicts most media, including this newspaper. The Oregonian's Earth Day editorial urged support for politicians who back energy-efficient buildings, wind power, public transportation and so on. Everything but population control.

Leaving out the key ingredient can be downright misleading. A March 29 headline read, "Portland lessens its 'carbon footprint.' " But Portland did no such thing. Portlanders may have indeed reduced their per-capita driving by 5 percent over five years, as the story reported, but the metro area's population grew by 8 percent over the same period. The number of vehicles registered in Multnomah County has increased 45 percent since 1990. You do the math.

When it comes to global warming, we're ignoring one simple truth: The Earth doesn't care about per-capita greenhouse-gas production. It's the total amount of CO2 in the air that matters.

I like to refer to the problem as peak people.  While we have just reached or soon will reach peak oil I suspect we reached peak people sometime around 1950.  Stabalizing the population won't be enough - it must be reduced.  In a totalatarian country like China they can limit children to one per family.  Not something we can do in a Democracy but the Bible thumpers in the US are even opposed to voluntary birth control.  Now Mr Hart is a bit more optimistic than I am and gives us some suggestions as to how we can help

Five ways to help the planet

1. Eliminate the taboo that keeps us from talking about the root cause of our environmental -- and many other -- problems. Concern about overpopulation is not racist, communist, sexist or biased against the Third World. We all have a stake in this.

2. Quit mistaking per-capita pollution numbers as a sign of progress. Let's track the totals, of carbon dioxide and every other human pollutant.

3. Reward politicians who support population control with your votes. Eliminate tax breaks for more than two children. Focus foreign aid on population-control programs. Campaign for a new worldwide ethic in favor of small families.

4. Keep your own family small. World population will eventually level off only if we hold average births per woman to 2.06. We'll reduce the world population to a sustainable size only if women average no more than 1.7 children.

5. Stop treating growth as not only inevitable, but also positive. Despite recent reports, a slowdown in metro-area housing starts is not bad news.

Now I don't think that anything significant will be done but over population has a way of self correcting.  There is of course starvation and disease but as resources become scarce much of the correction will be the result of resource wars - just ask the tens of thousands of Iraqis who have already died.