A Familiar Rhyme in Somalia

By BJ

While the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq have been the main focus of the Bush administration�s �War on Terror�, there was a third war started in Somalia that continues to rage and go just as poorly for the US-backed Eithiopian-and-Somali-exile government as the others have. Most recently, the Islamists took control over the third largest city and a major port, Kismayo:

The reason given for starting the war in the Horn of Africa was much like that in Iraq, the claim that the Islamic Courts Union, which was consolidating control of southern Somalia from US-backed warlords, was said to be in close league with al Qaeda. It was a dubious claim at the time, but today I spotted this story in the LA Times, which posits that it may be more true today:

Conventional wisdom long held that Somalia was so inhospitable that even Al Qaeda gave up trying to gain a foothold amid feuding clans, erratic warlords and a wily population hardened by years of anarchy.

Now, in the wake of an aggressive U.S. counter-terrorism program that has alienated many Somalis, there are signs that Al Qaeda may have its best chance in years to win over Islamic hard-liners in the Horn of Africa nation.

. . .

U.S. Ambassador Michael E. Ranneberger acknowledged growing links between Shabab and Al Qaeda, but said ties remained in the early stages.

"There are indications of a fairly close Shabab-Al Qaeda connection, though it's not clear to what extent they've been operationalized," he said. "Is Shabab taking orders from Al Qaeda? I would say no. They are still running their own show."

. . .

"Once we end the holy war in Somalia, we will take it to any government that participated in the fighting against Somalia or gave assistance to those attacking us," he said.

Analysts say such talk highlights a growing radicalization of Somalia's Islamists. Although Somalia has long had hard-liners, most of the population practiced a moderate form of Islam, and even extremists limited attacks to inside the country or against Ethiopia, a longtime rival.

But some worry a more radical agenda in Somalia has been aided by U.S. counter-terrorism efforts during the last two years, including half a dozen airstrikes against suspected terrorist targets that often killed civilians.

Somalia's citizens are also outraged by the ongoing occupation of Mogadishu by Ethiopian troops, who came in 2006 to defeat a short-lived Islamic government that had taken power largely with help from Shabab fighters.

Funny how conventional wisdom had long held the exact opposite of what the Bush administration was saying. For those of you keeping score at home, the US backed and supported an Eithiopian invasion of Somalia to overthrow a government they said was closely linked to and supporting al Qaeda, but are now saying that the links are only just now beginning and are starting to grow in response to US actions.

Basically, the invasion and continued foreign occupation has caused the radicalization and movement towards al Qaeda that it was supposed to prevent. Something about that sounds awfully familiar.