By Cernig
Over at American Footprints, "China Hand" has a thought provoking post laying out the argument that a Surge into Afghanistan would be a disaster in that it would mean a collapse of Pakistani politics. Go read the whole thing.
If he's right, a Surge into Afghanistan would simply push the problem East into Pakistan - where the most popular politician - Sharif with an 86% approval - "represents the majority strain in Pakistani popular opinion opposed to Pakistan�s participation in the U.S. led War on Terror."
As Western forces surge into Afghanistan in an effort to defeat the burgeoning Taliban insurgency by assaulting its havens in Pakistan, expect the Pakistani Taliban to retaliate�against Pakistan, in the Pakistani heartland�in order to demonstrate to Pakistani opinion the unacceptably high costs of providing material support to an unpopular American strategy.
Inside the Pakistan elite, the case for disengaging from the U.S. war on terror will be made forcefully by the ISI, which has never abandoned its support for the Taliban�or its desire for a pro-Pakistan regime in Kabul.
There has been one piece of disturbing news that implies that the ISI might be ready to take matters into its own hands and assist the Taliban in to redirecting Pakistani security policy�the ISI�s alleged complicity in the terror bombing of the Indian embassy in Kabul on July 8, 2008.
The U.S. government has been in the forefront in providing intelligence linking the ISI to the attack, no doubt a sobering reminder to Islamabad that the Bush administration has a pronounced pro-Indian tilt that no amount of enthusiastic water-carrying by Pakistan on Afghan security is likely to reverse.
Karzai�s ties to India as a counterweight to Pakistan have been a source of irritation to the ISI. But orchestrating the bombing of India�s embassy might not have been a reckless act of brinksmanship; it may have been a deliberate provocation.
If Karzai indignantly broke off relations with Pakistan, and India responded to the bombing with understandable anger, then Pakistan�s army would be free to abandon the thankless project of cooperating with NATO forces in the bloody, border-straddling counter-insurgency campaign in the Pashtun areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Instead, while Karzai floundered to his doom, the Pakistani army could do what it does best: deploying its divisions in a conventional order of battle in Pakistan�s east facing India and engage in the crowd-pleasing ritualized hostility that has secured the army�s place in the center of national esteem�and fattened its budget�for the last sixty years.
So, a surge into Afghanistan, instead of adding an emollient sheen to waters already smoothed by an interested regional power, might instead apply a highly flammable coating of gasoline to all of South Asia�with the Taliban and the ISI both eager to throw a match.
This isn't just America's problem, though. A resurgent Pakistani military which has given up co-operation with the West and truned its attention fully on its neighbours would be a probelm for everyone. If this depressing situation slaps the West on the face in the coming years, it'll be yet another one of those things "no-one could have anticipated".
"China Hand" posits a near worst case scenario.
ReplyDeleteThe alleged ISI orchestration of the attack upon India's embassy in Kabul is probably about as far as the Pakistani army will push things along these lines.
I would wager that with Pakistan's economy currently collapsing (to a greater degree than many in the the West realize), Pakistan's military will not jeopardize their access to their sugar daddies in Washington, even in the face of an Afghan "surge".
Of course, they will continue to stymie U.S. efforts in their neighborhood whenever they can, but a wholesale (public) re-orientation away from America and towards conflict with India is unlikely.
And the political scene in Pakistan is already collapsing quite nicely of its own accord, surge or no surge.
The lack of coverage of the collapse of the Pakistani economy in the US is truly amazing. The removal of Musharraff came at just the right time for the military - under normal circumstances. The crooks who are running the government right now know that the odds of their remaining in power for very long are not very high. So they are going to be falling over each other in their main task of fattening their wallets. Under normal conditions that would mean that the public would get disgusted and the military could be back in the catbird seat. But these are not normal circumstances. If the economy collapses what will happen is anyone's guess. The place is a powder keg. The surge will just provide an opportunity for the US to be tagged with responsibility for the mess.
ReplyDeleteYou know the sad thing is that the US actually has, or at least had, professionals in the State department who could provide decent leadership which might help the Pakistanis and would certainly help the US. Instead we will get another attempt at solving a political situation with military means. What was Einstein's definition of insanity?
Professionals like Zalmay? What's your take on his cozy-cozy holiday with Zardari, empty? The Indians are going to leap to a conclusion - that Zal-Khal was aranging Zardaris backing for his own tilt at the Afghan prez's chair in return for pushing Zardari to the bushies. Karzai might well come to the same conclusion.
ReplyDeleteRegards, C