By Fester:
The National Republican Congressional Committee is determined to not be surprised by a tough challenge in Western Pennsylvania again. The NRCC and other leading Republican groups thought that Melissa Hart (R-Bradford Woods) had enough incumbency and cash advantages to hold onto PA-4 in the 2006 cycle. She lost by a decent margin to a political novice Jason Altmire (D-McCandless). Rep. Altmire is in a rematch with Ms. Hart, but he should win this race again.
The NRCC is dropping more than $800,000 into an ad campaign for Rep. English (R) who represents the 3rd Congressional District in Pennsylvania.
Right now PA-3 is on the radar screens of national and local Democrats. It is not a top tier race, but it is race of interest that will definitely benefit from the coordinated campaign's GOTV work for Obama and potentially see some outside liberal groups playing up there. If there is anything that resembles an implicit plan, it would be to win the ground game and not get crushed on the airwaves.
And that is where enthusiasm comes into play. Door knocking, phone banking and all of the other little steps that need to be done for a successful ground game is tough work. A campaign either needs a ton of money and a willingness to spend it on field, or it needs numerous motivated volunteers. It prefers the motivated volunteers for once they are trained up, they tend to be better than the paid canvassers. Motivation matters a lot as it fuels passion and conviction.
The Democrats are counting on a wave from Obama's GOTV groups and I think that probability is real. 75,000 people went to see Obama speak last ngiht, and he could have doubled the seating and still spoke to a full house. On the other hand; John McCain's campaign is still trying to fill a 10,000 seat gym for a combination birthday party and Vice Presidential announcement. That should be a big deal and that should be an easy draw. But as of 24 hours before the event, the GOP is still scrambling to find people who want to come.
Enthusiasm won't win a blow-out; just ask the Paul voters from this cycle or fellow Deaniacs from '04. It will push a lot of races closer, and move close races over the top.
If the NRCC is dropping a decent chunk of its cash on hand to PA-3, it is very worried that it will be swamped by enthusiasism and the ground game.
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