By Fester:
I am not an oil field engineer, but one thing I do know about the oil industry is that a new oil well needs to be drilled before oil can be extracted. At sea, that means an off-shore drilling platform is needed. And here is a problem. The supply of off-shore platforms that can drill is booked solid for the next four and a half years. RigZone is showing a very high utilization rate of the current global supply of a neccessary component of any off-shore drilling effort.
So when the Drill Now, Drill Here folks are projecting quasi-magical claims of price decreases due to the increased availability of American oil that is brought about by their policy change, I just have to laugh. Drilling on the Atlantic seaboard for the exploration wells will only occur if a rig is moved off of a current production well on known reserves. That means in the short run, supply will decrease if a rig is moved to support their policy. A decrease in supply, all else being equal, will lead to an increase in price. Otherwise, their policy change which is allegedly supposed to do something about pain at the pump this summer, won't see any significant impact for most of a decade.
Fester,
ReplyDeleteAhh, but you are missing their subtle argument. It is not the actual oil that will reduce prices, but the "psychological" impact that wanting to drill for oil will have on world markets. You don't need actual drilling rigs for that, you see.