The Surge Was A Success - For Contractors

By Cernig

"Blackwater will stand up so we can stand down" just doesn't have the same ring to it, does it?

But, via Armchair Generalist, that's apparently what's happening.

This year, spending on contractors, who protect diplomats, civilian facilities and supply convoys, is projected to exceed $1.2 billion, according to federal contract and budget data obtained by USA TODAY. Most of that bill � about $1 billion �is State Department spending, which is up 13% over 2007. The remaining $200 million covers Pentagon contracts.

Rising private security costs come as the Pentagon removes the last of the 30,000 extra troops sent to Iraq last year. Contractors take on roles once handled by U.S. troops, such as securing Iraq's infrastructure and guarding reconstruction supplies.

Despite rightwing attempts to spin Bush's aquiessence to Maliki's Obama-esque timetable as being due to the Iraqi Army standing up at long last, that isn't the case. Maliki simply has the upper hand - he could always let the UN mandate just expire if pushed too far. That's why he has "won" the negotiations on the new status of forces deal. In any case, he wants US troops out of the way and control of his own provinces so that he can keep trying for "strongman" status. His current target is the Awakening, and he believes he only needs US logistical help for that. US combat troops would be a hinderance.

Maliki appears to have internalised his neocon sponsor's belief that you can "make your own reality" a bit too well. It's a tendency to hubris that could well bite him on the ass. Colin H. Kahl of the Center for a New American Security and other experts are warning of the possible pitfalls.

Dan Curfiss, program manager for Iraq at the National Defense University�s Near East and South Asia Center, said that if the integration fails, "You would have in effect two armies" in the country, and the militias "could very easily return to a rogue status."

... "[Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri] al-Maliki has no interest in integrating these guys - none," Mr. Kahl said. "He thinks they�re thugs; he thinks they�re hooligans ... . In fact, there�s some evidence that he�s trying to pick fights with them, hoping that they will start a fight that he can then turn around and finish them."

... Sam Parker, who helps run the Iraq program at the U.S. Institute of Peace, said the al-Maliki government is "slow-rolling" the process of integrating members of the Sunni groups and that it will not move forward "without more pressure ... from the highest levels of the U.S. government."

"The [Sons of Iraq] will rightly conclude that they're not going to get a place at the table, and go back to doing what they were doing before," Mr. Parker said. "Rather than trying to join the political process, they will try to undermine it with violence as part of the insurgency."

... Mr. Kahl also warned against a strategy of limiting integration to Sunni leaders and placing them in low-level jobs.

"Oh, sure, we�ll let that colonel in the ... Republican Guard into the Iraqi police, but we�ll make him an enlisted beat cop," he said, describing the attitude of some Baghdad officials. "Do you know how low on the social scale that is in Iraq and how humiliating this is?"

"You don�t have to believe that 100,000 of these guys are going to turn back into insurgents," Mr. Kahl said. "If 5,000 of them do, that could be a big problem."

I don't see this ending any other way than with lots of blood shed, but I I firmly believe that its the Iraqis' country to make or ruin as they see fit, and Maliki is currently their leader however much his actions may be odious. I opposed the original invasion of Iraq and I'm not about to advocate staying there to help the Awakening movement. That would be hypocritical and would ignore the reality on the ground. I'm sure Blackatwer and others will come in handy when the s**t hits the fan...

But its worth pointing out that by Bush and the Republican's own standards the betrayal of the Awakening and abandonment of them to their fate is "appeasement" of Maliki, pure and simple. Unfortunately, the only way to counter Maliki's strong-arming the Sons of Iraq at this late stage would be to effectively re-invade. That's so not going to happen. Instead we'll get announcements like Monday's expected one that the US is handing over control of Anbar province - five weeks after the handover ceremony was postponed in the wake of a bombing of SoI leaders and entirely timed so that it can be a factor in the GOP's conference.