By Fester:
From Menzie Chinn at Econbrowser:
But unlike exports, imports are -- according to macroeconomic estimates -- highly insensitive with respect to exchange rates, and much more elastic with respect to income [1]. So I suspect that real income is either actually stagnants or falling, or perceived to fall in the near future (I'm not so Keynesian as to think only current income matters)....
The divergence between real GDP and real Gross Domestic Purchases remains. Indeed it has expanded, from 2.4 ppts to 3.1 ppts. In Figure 3, I plot real GDP and Gross Domestic Purchases growth, and in Figure 4, the respective growth rates of the deflators.
This observation that internal consumption is falling and it is due to primarily income effects seems to be backed up by the data. Marketwatch reports that personal income and consumption fell in real terms:
Real consumer spending fell 0.4% in July..... Personal income fell 0.7% in July, the biggest drop since August 2005. Real disposable incomes fell 1.7% in July... Inflation surged in the month. The core personal consumption expenditure price index rose 0.3% in July compared with June
Incomes are down, prices are up, and the GDP price deflater looks absurd. The good news isn�t that good if the inflation deflator is in line with its historical trend performance against other inflation gauges. This is a recession or at least it sure as hell feels like one.
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