By Steve Hynd
A report today states the bleeding obvious (h/t Kat):
If it were in a position to do so, Al Qaeda would use Pakistan's nuclear weapons in its fight against the United States, a top leader of the group said in remarks aired Sunday.
Duh! Did anyone not know this already? What's far less obvious is the chances of that ever happening.
The Pakistani Taliban, for reasons of demography, comparative firepower and ethnic antipathy, have next to no chance of ever taking over Pakistan from the massive Pakistani military. The AQ network of mainly non-Pakistanis, therefore, have even less chance. Nil. The chances of AQ seizing those heavily-guarded nukes, possibly with their component parts widely disperssed, as well as the codes created with US help needed to unlock their destructive potential are likewise vanishingly small.
The only viable path to AQ's dream would be if Pakistan's military secretly handed them those components and codes, something that's also unlikely in the extreme unless the West backs Pakistan into a corner first. The hawkish penchant for bombing civilians, while not at all helpful, isn't sufficient for that. I'm having difficulties imagining a scenario that could lead to such help for AQ, especially given post-bomb forensic identification methods and the inevitable consequences for Pakistan.
It's a fantasy, a pipe-dream, a scary story intended to get Western pantswetting hawks all in a flutter, psyops terrorism by press release.
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