By Fester:
The guerrilla and criminal group(s) called MEND has successfully been pressuring the Nigerian state with a coordinated campaign of pipeline destruction, bunkering and intermediate and deep attacks against off-shore oil production facilities. Nigeria has less than two weeks of domestic refined fuel supplies available and the shut-in of production is contributing to the run-up in prices for the global oil market. Nigeria is not benefiting from this run-up as quantity produced has dropped faster than price received.
The Nigerian government is offering a political solution that meets some of the guerrilla groups' demands:
overtures from the government, including the offer of a blanket amnesty
to militants who lay down their arms and give up their campaign. Some
militant leaders have reportedly accepted the amnesty in principle. The
group is seeking direct talks with the government and the release of
one of its leaders, Henry Okah.
The question is not whether or not everyone involved in the pipeline campaign will accept the amnesty and the attendant political gains. The relevant question is if the leaders who have accepted the amnesty and political settlement in principle are connected enough, strong enough, and credible enough to change the local situational dynamic against the hardliners? Can the political process deliver more goods and goodies to people who want to buy in than the system disruption and smuggling campaign? And can those goods be distributed to the relevant players in a credible manner?
If that is the case where MEND is split between a political solution faction and hardliners, the insurgency will be cracked.
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