By Steve Hynd
As official Iranian reports put the number of dead in clashes between protesters and security forces at 19 or more, the regime shows every sign of willingness to play hardball with dissident leaders. The daughter of former president Hashemi Rafsanjani has been arrested, along with four other members of his family.
A lot of people expected something like this, as Rafsanjani is regarded as something of a puppetmaster for Mousavi and other more public figures at the forefront of the protest movement. Indeed, some have speculated that the whole turmoil is simply the result of a power struggle between feuding elites - Rafsanjani's and Amadinejad's - for the ability to be first at the trough when it comes to diverting Iran's wealth to personal accounts.
Mousavi, far from being silenced, is calling for "space for peaceful protest" in terms that are designed to place the protests, and his own leadership bid, squarely in the current of Islamic Republicanism avowed by Ayatollah Khominei and the 1979 Iranian Revolution. The debate, as Roger Cohen writes, has shifted "to a broader confrontation with the regime itself". Rafsanjani, however, has been very quiet over the past couple of days.
I'm not at all sure the protest's elite leaders, especially Rafsanjani, are willing to put their necks, those of their families, and their personal privileges on the line for that broader confrontation. If not, then can the protest movement survive without them and find new leaders capable of taking it forward?
A very confusing week, with very little hard information but, to me, lots of questionable reporting and "gossip*".
ReplyDeleteAs unfortunately to be expected Western leaders - mainly US/UK - seem to be verging on collapse into completely unredeemable hypocrites (19 deaths appalling and a disgrace for any gov't but not even a mediocre US/NATO bombing run in Afghanistan}. I wonder whether Western leaders have any intelligence at all about the situation in Iran or are as confused as some of their citizens.
I've entered one of my worse cynical moods and concluded this is a perfect time for opportunists** of any political leaning and any trade. I'm still weighing where to put Fisk and Cohen.
*casual or unconstrained conversation or reports about other people, typically involving details that are not confirmed as being true
**a person who exploits circumstances to gain immediate advantage rather than being guided by consistent principles or plans.
I am with you, geoff,,,,,
ReplyDelete"I've entered one of my worse cynical moods and concluded this is a perfect time for opportunists** of any political leaning and any trade."
I am particularly concerned by how this situation is being manipulated by certain US/Israeli factions that would like have the Iranian government removed a la some sort of shock and awe redux.
Many of the same voices that opposed the concept of an Iraq invasion/occupation (with good reason) during the run up to that calamity are now buying into this latest wave of propaganda from the same people that brought us the big Iraq WMD scare.
It is hard to not be moved by images of protesters being beaten and shot down. It is hard to not be moved by the notion of a people yearning for freedom in the face of a repressive corrupt government. Yet we cannot allow emotion to overtake reason.
Let's face it, regardless of who was elected in Iran, the stance on the issues that seem to be of greatest concern for us probably would not change significantly. Neither candidate has had a promising history concerning pro US/pro Israel/ pro western democracy.
Furthermore, I do not see the Iranian government's reaction to the protesters as being - in and of itself - evidence of any unique oppressiveness. Had people in the US taken to the streets in the same manner after the Bush election and the Florida decision, believe me, there would have been an equal number of protesters beaten and killed. It's happened here before, you know.....that is what governments do when faced with determined unruly mass civil unrest.
But the US media spins away. Any who opposes our bad guy de jour is a "freedom fighter".
Yeah. right.
"Furthermore, I do not see the Iranian government's reaction to the protesters as being - in and of itself - evidence of any unique oppressiveness."
ReplyDeleteYou are correct avedis. At 63 I am old enough to remember when the US government did the same thing. I was in college from 1964-1968 and remember the response to civil rights protests and of course anti-war protests - brutal and often bloody. From 1968- 1972 I was in Germany and remember how the Europeans responded to the brutality in the US. Too few people remember Kent State.