Reconciliation at the end of a gun

By Fester:

Stability and political reconciliation have been the strategic objectives of the United States in Iraq for at least the past three years. The tamping down of violence in Baghdad and Sunni Arab dominated areas of Iraq from the level of the most violent places on earth to just some of the more violent places on earth has been rightly trumpeted as a good thing. However reconciliation has been a much more cantankerous process as there are significant and profound differences among all major competing interest groups as well as the ability of most groups (major and minor) to play the violent spoiler.

Agence France Presse reports that the senior Sunni who had bought into the government/political process was assassinated today:

A teenage gunman went on the rampage in a Baghdad mosque on Friday, killing five people including a Sunni Muslim MP in a grenade and gun attack, officials and witnesses said.

he slain lawmaker was identified as Harith al-Obaidi of the Iraqi Islamic Party, part of the National Concord Front.

Reuters reports that al-Obaidi was the head of the Accordance Front, which is the largest Sunni Arab bloc in the government.

What is the impact of this attack? If the attacker was a disaffected Sunni Arab or foreign jihadi, the impact is minimal as the attack is just part of the ongoing and multi-year brawl between the tribal power networks and the jihadi networks for dominance with the Iraqi Sunni Arab communities.

However, IF the attacker was a Shi'ite or affiliated with Shi'ite miltias, I think this attack would heighten the already justified Sunni Arab fear that their leadership and elite cadres will forever be targetted by the Shi'ite dominated machinery of the state as well as the militias.