By Fester:
Col. Pat Lang on the upswing in large scale bombings in Iraq:
The most important component of the policy package shorthanded as
"The Surge" was not the increased US combat presence, however helpful
that was. The most important thing was the successful effort to woo
Sunni insurgents away from active or tacit support of the takfiri jihadis
and into the "friendly" category. We did that, and well. They were
not wholeheartedly converted "born again" friends of Brother Dave
Petraeus? What a surprise! We used money to bring them to our side?
How terrible! Does that mean that their hearts were not pure!! Ah,
the world is a sad place and this kind of work is always like herding
cats.
Now the Americans are clearly leaving. Power is steadily shifting
towards the Shia dominated government that the Americans created. That
Shia government does not seem inclined to honor the variety of overt
and implied "promises" that the Americans made to the "Sons of Iraq,"
etc. The government's actions toward their Sunni "brothers" surely
indicate that this is true.
In that situation it is to be expected that Sunni Arab hostility to the takfiri jihadis will wane and it is waning. That is why it is possible for there to be more and more suicide bombings. Get the message?
There are two ways to avoid further difficulty - 1. The government
should understand that bloody minded oppression of the Sunni Arabs will
mean unending low level warfare in Iraq, and 2. Someone should keep paying off the Sunnis sub rosa.
- The Sunni Arab community believes it will receive a much better
deal by outlasting the US and imposing either rent against a Shi'ite
dominated government for non-violence or a military victory that is far
more favorable to them then currently participating in the political
process.- Sooner or later the US will get out of Iraq in some fashion; the Sunni Arab community will stay in Iraq no matter what.
previously privileged positions within Iraqi society, thus receiving
the economic, political and cultural rents that they previously were
collecting...
It is looking more likely that the lease with the option to buy the Sunni Arab tribal loyalty is running out with little chance of that option being picked up. The dynamic has been to either strengthen the Sunni Arab tribal elites or see an increase in violence. That dynamic is playing out in Mosul and Baghdad as well as in the disputed areas near Kirkuk's oil fields and oil distribution systems. The Sunni Arabs are potentially re-asserting their capacity to be veto players.
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