The People And The Islamic Republic

By Steve Hynd

It seems that all of Iran is choosing sides in the feud between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi. Huge pro-Moussavi rallies continue to happen, despite bans, while those for his opponent have to be photoshopped to show crowds on anything like a par. The cry is that "We don't have Mousavi supporters, it's now all of Iran". Even some elements of the army may be backing the vast sea of those who are rallying for Mousavi, although the IRGC and the Pasdaran are backing their hardline sponsor, Ahmadinejad.

But don't for a second believe the American neocon hype that this is Bush's version of "freedom on the march". The neocons and their Likudnik fellow travellers have an agenda - supporting Ahmadinejad, the man they feel gives them the best chance of pressuring the West to begin dropping bombs on Iran. It's what they've always done: accusing the opposition of what they themselves are doing, to muddy the waters.

Those Mousavi supporters are using the slogans of the Islamic Revolution and it's my understanding that they are mostly simply seeking a return to the status quo ante, when their votes meant something in the half-rigged Islamic Republic's system. They're not looking to depose the mullahs and they're not looking to break the system that's persisted since 1979 - they just want it to work as advertised. Nowhere is this clearer than in their choice of leaders: Mousavi, Rafsanjani, Khatami, Montazeri. All members in good standing of the Iranian politico-clerical elite and all standing to gain nothing from a break-up of the existing system. As Trita Parsi writes:

What's often forgotten amid the genuinely awe-inspiring spectacle of hundreds of thousands of long-suppressed people risking their lives on the streets to demand change is the fact that the political contest playing out in the election is, in fact, among rival factions of the same regime. Ahmadinejad represents a conservative element, backed by the Supreme Leader, that believes the established political class has hijacked the revolution and enriched themselves and is fearful that the faction's more pragmatic inclination toward engagement with the West could lead to a normalization of relations that will "pollute" Iran's culture and weaken the regime. Mousavi is not really a reformer so much as a pragmatic, moderate conservative who has campaigned with the backing of the reform movement because it recognizes that he has a better chance of unseating Ahmadinejad than one of their own would have.

What those clerics and their supporters are opposing is a naked power grab by Ahmadinejad and his own cabal, mostly comprising Revolutionary Guards cadre who have been consistently moving into positions of power for years in anticipation. Ahmadinejad intends to take the republic out of the "Islamic Republic", replacing it with a president-for-life and a hardline military ruling class. The only real question there is whether the Grand Ayatollah is complicit in Ahmadinejad's plans. Speculation via the tireless Nico Pitney that Rafsanjani may be about to ask the Assembly of Experts to remove Khamenei from his position as supreme leader might go a long way towards answering that question.

The prize for both competing elites is oil money. The people? They apparently just want their Islamic Republic back. That might require a few changes to the system but not to its overall character.