By Steve Hynd
It appears that, the events following Rafsanjani's speech on Friday notwithstanding, events in Iran have taken a turn away from street protests following heavy handed crackdowns. But that's not to say that Khamenei and Ahmadinejad have won. We may well see more large protests tomorrow, the aniversarry of Mossadeq by a CIA-backed coup, but in general there's a translation to a war of words between the two factions - Ahmadinejad's coup - plotters who wanted to take the "Republic" out of the Islamic Republic and the equally powerful, equally entrenched Rafsanjani political elite.
Former president Mohammad Khatami, a reformist, has followed Rafsanjani's criticisms with a call for a referendum.
"I state openly that reliance upon the people's vote and the staging of a legal referendum is the only way for the system to emerge from the current crisis," Mr Khatami said.
"People must be asked whether they are happy with the situation that has taken shape," he said.
He suggested that an impartial body such as the Expediency Council should hold the referendum and pledged that his political supporters would respect the result whatever it was.
And "defeated" presidential candidate Mir Hossein Moussavi has called for the immediate release of protesters who have been detained since last month's disputed presidential election while directly contradicting Supreme Leader Khamenei's claims that that "foreign enemies" supported the unrest by broadcasting "procedures for rioting" through their media.
"Who believes these people, many of them prominent figures, would work with the foreigners to endanger their country's interests? � They should be immediately released," he said during a meeting today with detainees' families, according to a reformist website.
Another defeated candidate, Mehdi Karrubi, also attacked the excessive use of force against protestors.
How do they try to say that they do not confront people violently or to blame others? All of this took place in front of people's eyes," Karrubi told supporters, according to Iran's Aftab news agency. "They kill the youth in front of people's eyes and then say that they didn't have firearms. As a member of this system, I am embarrassed of these thoughtless and clear lies."
Still, reports from the likes of Rupert Murdoch's intensely pro-Zionist Jerusalem Post that Basjii militiamen were ordered to rape young girls about to be executed for their involvement in demonstrations, sourced from a single anonymous alleged militia member, should be taken with a massive pinch of salt. Khamenei is at least correct that Israel has mounted an effective anti-Iran propaganda campaign in the West for years now, the source says he was imprisoned for refusing the order yet is now mysteriously free to talk to the Post and he was recommended to them by �a reliable source whose identity can also not be revealed,� most likely either Mossad or their allies in the MeK terror group.
Supreme Leader Khamenei had previously appealed to the nation's political elite for unity to protect their own power.
"Elites should know that any talk, action or analysis that helps (the enemy) is a move against the nation. We should be very careful," Khamenei said in a speech to Iranian officials in a clear reference to recent statements questioning the poll.
"People regard with hate anyone, in any position, who wants to move society toward insecurity," Khamenei said. "There are things that should not be said. If we say them, we have moved against the nation. This is now a test for the elites and failing in this test ... means falling down."
But with the reported resignation of Ahmadinejad's senior vice president after only three days on the job and reports that the regime is arresting pro-reform military officers, it's clear that the Grand Ayatollah doesn't have the control over internal dissent he wishes he has. Nor do the reformists have a clear upper hand. Iran expert Massoumeh Torfeh writes in The Guardian today that Rafsanjani, once hated by the reformist movement for his corrupt pocket-lining ways, is now probably indispensable to that movement and that:
the protesters must be aware of their own weaknesses. They know they have no clear strategy for what should happen in the event of the "dictator" being removed. They just know that if Mousavi had been given a chance their lot might have been far more acceptable than it could ever be with four more years of Ahmadinejad. They know that in four or possibly eight years of a Mousavi presidency they would have had a chance to influence policy and reform.
They are also aware that to confront the regime now they need the backing of the military and security services. They know that their set of leaders have little influence inside the Revolutionary Guards or the Basij militia since these are the Islamic instruments of power and devoted to the supreme leader. They know that Ahmadinejad, who rose to power from among the security and intelligence forces, and has offered posts across the country to his former colleagues, has a reasonable degree of influence in their ranks. They know he can always rely on them for repressing the street protests and political activism.
Despite that, the protesters know time is on their side. The crack that has appeared at the centre of the political structure of the Islamic republic is serious and can neither be sealed or concealed.
Writing for the Payvand website, author Kam Zarrabi is more circumspect, asking:
Is the opposition movement currently underway able to achieve the desired results as the protesters and their leaders hope? To put it in a simpler sense; is some "velvet" revolution under way, which might result in a reasonably peaceful transition to an open secular democracy in Iran?
He says not, pointing out that the protest movement is led by a half dozen different political groups who only have their dislike of Ahmadinejad in common. Instead of a revolution, he writes, change will come in gradual increments.
There is absolutely no reason to believe that any possible or probable substitute regime would be able to bring about the kind of changes, and at a rate, that would satisfy the demands of all the various opposition groups which today speak with a common voice against a common foe. Any substitute regime would inevitably face challenges by rival camps demanding their fair share in managing the affairs of the country. This was exactly the case after the Khomeini regime took power in 1979. We all know what happened to all those "hopefuls"! The serious non religious ideologues died out, went into their underground dormancy or fled the country. Most intellectuals, the moneyed elite and the modernized bourgeoisie, at least those among them who could, abandoned ship and sought refuge and comfort abroad, where most of them still are!
...Any meaningful and sustainable reform has to take place in gradual steps and in carefully gauged measures to prevent a national breakdown and catastrophic bloodshed. Chaos, disharmony and violence may weaken the fabric that has been holding the nation together to a point that it could fall prey to predatory exploiters waiting on the flanks...I personally predict a gradual trend toward moderation and reform that should become more visible before Iran's next presidential elections. Whether ayatollah Khamene'i retains his position as the nation's highest authority, or he is replaced by Mr. Rafsanjani or another challenger, the nature of the regime as an Islamic Republic will remain intact for the foreseeable future.
Zarrabi believes that too-loud gestures of support for a "velvet" revolution from the West will actually only play into the hardliners' hands, encouraging them to paint the protest movement as led by foreign agitation and so to crack down even harder.
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