By Fester
Dave Schuler at Outside the Beltway gives the short version of how to successfully repress protests. It is not complicated if the authorities have a plan and the will to use force.
Step 1: Cut off cellphone and Internet Access Step 2: Control the message Step 3: Crack down forcefully Step 4: Reward successful repression of dissent An authoritarian regime with the will to crush dissent and the wherewithal to do so can stay in power indefinitely.....
John Robb touches on the resource and cash flow advantages of the Chinese government compared to the Soviets in the late '80s. The Chinese are integrated in the economic system and they supply something (disinflationary labor and wages) that the Western elites want. The Chinese also control a significant amount of debt and have allowed for 'consequence free' short term decision making and irresponsibility. The Soviets by the mid-80s were in debt without a good economic chokepoint product to sell.
The great part about being a Chinese dictatorship in a world with one rule set (Adam Smith's), is that your paramilitary forces can slaughter 140 156 protestors without even a whimper from the global community. Western elites just don't care because business with China is more important than human rights and the fact that China reacts like a spoiled child when chastised (which makes it not worth the hassle).
It is this same basic set of analysis that has fueled by skepticism that the Moussavi led protestors will be successful in a meaningful manner. The Iranian state has been attempting to limit external communitcation, and it has demonstrated a willingness to crack down hard. Iran has been accumulating diversified foreign currency reserves over the past few years as oil prices have boomed. Hard currency reserves have more than doubled in the past five years. The net asset position has also improved for Iran. The Iranian government and hardliners have the resources to fight hard for its rent protection position, and it has the will. And that was as evident a month ago as it is today.
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