By Fester:
The MEND insurgent group(s) in Nigeria have traditionally restricted their activities against the Nigerian government and oil production system to the Delta region of Nigeria. That is where the oil is, and that is where MEND's social support system lies. They have a regional objective (keep more money/power derived from oil exports in the region) and they have traditionally waged a regional campaign.
MEND's operational pattern had been to blow up or bunker for the black-market crude oil in the Delta region. The thesis behind this pattern had been the denial of revenue due to decreased exports would impose a significantly high financial, political and opportunity cost on the Nigerian government that the prospect of peace with an attendant increase in cash flow would allow for a much better deal to be negotiated. This strategy may have worked in the 80s and 90s when oil prices were either in a downward trend or trading in a fairly narrow band that is significantly below current day 'low' prices. However the high global price in oil has basically meant the Nigerian government has 'only' lost counterfactual revenue as the government still has more money for public goodies distribution despite the decrease in exports due to the much higher prices.
MEND's response this summer has been to expand its campaign. The first phase of the campaign is built off of the traditional Delta region system sabotage. Instead of just attacking oil export infrastructure, MEND is also attacking the internal oil distribution and refining infrastructure. This phase of the campaign is close to shutting down all of Nigeria's internal refining capacity.
The Nigerian government has the cash reserves and the capacity to import a large increment of refined fuel to make up for this shortfall. However this action eats into the long run Nigerian cash flow position and the decrease of fuel subsidies will inflict a political cost on the Nigerian government. And this is where the campaign expansion comes into play. The second phase of the MEND campaign may be a series of attacks on the Nigerian fuel import infrastructure. Forbes reports one such attack in Lagos:
a loading dock for oil tankers in Lagos state, the latest in a string
of rebel attacks against Africa's biggest oil sector.
If this attack is replicated, it is a direct challenge to the functioning capacity of Nigeria as a society without refined fuel is a society that will very quickly backslide. MEND has escalated if it replicates this type of attack.
No comments:
Post a Comment