By Fester:
As we should all remember, the goal of the Surge was to use a short term boost of troops combined with an expansive patrolling and presence COIN doctrine combined with buying out the Sunni Arab native insurgency to create a window of comparative peace and quiet in which political issues such as the division of oil revenues, Kirkuk's status and refugee flows could be resolved. None of those goals were accomplished. Violence has decreased as the Sunnis have stayed leased and Baghdad has been ethnically cleansed. Mosul and Kirkuk are still divided cities, and therefore they are still violent cities. The US Army and Air Force are Maliki's political enforcers more than anything else. The SOFA removed the reason for nationalists to shoot at the US, or at least the non-hardcore nationalist groups as their objective of removing the US has been achieved.
A US Colonel proposes that the US accelerate its withdrawal from Iraq because there is no positive pay-off to staying:
The general lack of progress in essential services and good governance is now so broad that it ought to be clear that we no longer are moving the Iraqis �forward.� Below is an outline of the information on which I base this assessment:
1. The ineffectiveness and corruption of GOI [ed note: Government of Iraq] Ministries is the stuff of legend.
2. The anti-corruption drive is little more than a campaign tool for Maliki
3. The GOI is failing to take rational steps to improve its electrical infrastructure and to improve their oil exploration, production and exports.
4. There is no progress towards resolving the Kirkuk situation.
5. Sunni Reconciliation is at best at a standstill and probably going backwards.
6. Sons of Iraq (SOI) or Sahwa transition to ISF [ed note: Iraqi Security Forces] and GOI civil service is not happening, and SOI monthly paydays continue to fall further behind.
The Iraqi government is unable to provide basic services, fund itself despite oil prices in the mid-60s and the limited political movement of Sunni and Kurd political integration into a single, Shi'ite dominated state structure has reversed itself. That is not a strategic success. That is a strategic failure despite any claims of opearational success. Getting out of a failing state is a good idea, especially when our presence enables further failure cascades.
What Col Reese says makes a lot of sense unfortunately he's a bit of a reactive flack.
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