Corruption Costs and Prophlatytics

By Dave Anderson:

Last December, I cheered on the run-off election victory of Republican Rep. Joseph Cao in LA-1over Rep. WIlliam "Dollar Bill" Jefferson (D-LA) because it reinforced the "anti-overt douchebag incentives."  Now former Rep. Jefferson has been convicted of 11 of 16 felony corruption counts  so he is now the corrupt bastard from Louisiana instead of the allegedly corrupt bastard from Louisiana. 

The 2008 cycle saw 2 safe seats in generic times flip because of corruption; the Louisiana 1st District in the House, and the Alaskan Senate seat.  2006 saw several Republican seats flip on corruption and B-grade scandals.  With the exception of the Alaskan Senate seat, all of those seats flipped before convictions were obtained, and in at least a few cases, before indictments were unsealed. 

I have long argued that I did not expect to see many Democratic corruption scandals from the 2002 to 2006 Congresses because Democrats lacked the opportunity ( in the form of minimal power) to sell their own corruption, not the lack of motive.  That has definately changed in the past two Congresses, as Democrats have both the opportunity and motive to sell access and favors.  There are strong hints of such action in multiple districts of long time Democrats, including PA-12 and some of the New York City seats.

The GOP lost half a dozen seats including a Senate seat in the past two cycles due to the penumbra of corruption around long-term incumbents.  The Democrats lost a seat last cycle due to this penumbra as well.  Right now it looks like the Democrats may lose a Senate seat in otherwise deep blue Connecticutt due to the perception of self-dealing by Sen. Dodd. 

Early and frequent primaries to raise the internal caucus cost of corruption to the incumbents where there is the possibility of a taint or a federal indictment are needed to both minimize the local cost of corruption and to prevent the justified widespread tarring of the party as self-dealers.