By Dave Anderson
Public Policy Polling has the cross-tabs and analysis of doom as they poll the 2012 Republican Presidential primary (yes, I know, this is way too early, as Hillary Clinton was inevitable, and Mark Warner would have made a great VP choice after he ran and lost.) There was one very interesting crosstab that caught my eye:
The birthers love them some Sarah Palin. She's the most popular politician in the mix with them at 66% favorability. Next is Mike Huckabee at 58%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 46%, and Mitt Romney at 43%.
I mean this with all sincerity- Romney's lack of popularity with the birther wing of the GOP really could scuttle his chances at the nomination in three years.
Looking at the numbers from another angle- 63% of all Americans with a favorable opinion of Sarah Palin are birthers. Same thing with 53% of those who like Gingrich, 50% who view Huckabee positively, and 44% for Romney.
There is no electoral incentive for any prominent Republican not to throw rationality, facts or evidence to the wind.
Sad, and scary.
This is what happens when you pander to lunatics - they eventually take over the asylum.
ReplyDeleteIs this sad? I don't even know. If the GOP is reduced to a party of conspiracy theorists and the rapidly declining population of filthy stinking rich...
ReplyDeleteWe all know Sarah Palin's electoral chances are somewhere between slim and none. She's a bad fund raiser, she's got horrible stage presence, and she regularly spouts utter nonsense that even her fellow conservatives cringe at. If the mainstream old-school conservative base is getting forced out of the party, is that a bad thing?
I've got a number of co-workers who hated Bush with a passion, but still cling to the generic conservative philosophy. I'd be more than happy to see them grow so disgusted with the GOP that they give up and stay home on election day, or offer only their most lukewarm support. I'm happy to watch them become bait for upstart third party candidates like disenchanted Democrats were fodder for the Green Party movement through the late '90s and early '00s.
This seems to be the sign of an increasingly fringe and minority base. Sure, the party members themselves still remain in office, but it's only a matter of time before the moderates get primaried out and the crazies lose in the general.
On a tactical level, I agree with you Zif, it is a sign of a shrinking party.
ReplyDeleteHowever, I don't trust the Democratic Party to keep a decent effort at good governance and good policy generation unless they have a damn strong incentive to get things right. And that incentive is the threat of losing elections on a regular basis instead of the occassional basis. This country by design is a two party system, and a dysfunctional major party captured by lunatics is not a good thing over the intermediate or long run.