By Dave Anderson:
The Mexican government and the drug cartels and their associated smuggling networks have been engaged in an escalating step function of violence over the past three years. Every time the Mexican government has increased its committment and force level, the pattern has been the same. There has been a short term decrease in violence as everyone keeps their head down to observe, and then a re-escalation.
This pattern is repeating itself as the Mexican Army was deployed in significant numbers to Ciudad Juarez on the Texas border as well as to Michocan de Ocampo.
Reuters reports on the escalating death toll:
Last month was the deadliest month of President Felipe Calderon's nearly three-year army assault on powerful cartels across Mexico with 850 deaths, according to media tallies.
The death rate so far this year stands at around 4,000, about a third higher than in the same period in 2008 despite a brief lull earlier in the year.
President Calderon has staked his political future on a harsh crackdown on the cartels. Over the past three years, it has not worked. The Mexican political process has delivered a strong message of disapproval as opposition parties have gained seats and the majority in the lower house. It may be time to try something different as military escalation against a large and extremely profitable black market supply system has not worked.
I think the next escalation will be a continuation of the same strategy but with more American weapons by the Mexican government. I do not think that will work either. However, the counter-escalation that I have been expecting to occur, but has not yet, has been a direct attack on the ability of the Mexican state to function. Mexico has a shaky bond rating and brittle cash flows so if the cartels hammer the PEMEX oil distribution and export infrastructure, the Mexican state will be thrown into crisis.
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