By Fester:
The State Department has a small intelligence unit, the INR, that got the threat assessment of Iraqi WMDs far closer to reality than pretty much any other US intelligence bureau. They did not see much of a threat, perhaps the intention of developping future capability, but minimal capability at most in 2003. The INR is evaluating the Iranian nuclear program, and they are making the same capability based judgement: not much of a threat today, and not much of a threat for the next five years either.
This is via Secrecy News as theyreleased a DNI briefing to Congress from this winter:
Right now Iranian nuclear capability seems to be entering the realm of nuclear fusion --- just a few more years from today, despite the fact that a few years ago, today was a few more years from then.
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