Lagging Indicators and the 2010 Senate Campaign

By Fester:

The Philadelphia suburbs have been trending Democratic for the past decade.  The burbs came in strong for Gore, stronger for Kerry and overwhelmingly so for Obama.  The burbs have flipped two Republican held House seats to Democratic seats, and a third swing GOP held seat is now one of the top-ranked flip opportunities as Rep. Gerlach is running for governor.  The Philly burbs are replacing at a better than one to one rate the state house and senate seats that Western Pennsylvania Democrats have been losing.  Yet, until last summer, the Philly burbs had a net Republican registration advantage. 

Party registration is often a lagging indicator.  Political change occurs, and then registration numbers catch up.  The Democrats have been cleaning up in the Philly burbs as they were winning with a combination of highly loyal Democrats, non-affiliated voters and put over the top by defecting Republicans.  The typical conversion process is for a soft partisan to first become indepedent and then re-register in the other dominant party.  Direct switches are less frequent, although the Philly burbs saw a lot of that due to the 2008 Democratic primary.  Another route is for people to maintain their original party affiliation as that party is the dominant local party and they want to be able to influence candidates in the election that matters, the primary.  However at the general election, they'll routinely split their vote or swing heavily to the other party.

That dynamic is playing out in Southwestern Pennyslvania in the Pittsburgh suburbs.  Democrats still hold a significant registration edge, but the Congressional districts outside of the Pittsburgh 14th are trending Republican in the 3rd, 4th, 12th and 18th.  There are plenty of Democrats who will not vote for any Democrat outside of the local primary. 

These dynamics are important when thinking about the 2010 Senate campaign.  Booman is making an error in analysis when he argues that almost every Republican Senator is vulnerable due to partry registrationn differentials. 

But, new Gallup Polling shows trouble for most Republicans running for state-wide office. There are only six states in the country that are currently self-identifying with the GOP...

Republican Held Seats (19):

Solid Republican= 3
Lean Republican= 1
Competitive= 4
Lean Democratic= 5
Solid Democratic= 6

He argues that Oklahoma is a Lean Dem Senate Seat based on party registration and identification.  That is absurd.  Oklahoma is lean reactionary.  Its entire economy is resource extraction and carbon intensive.  The Democratic identification advantage may be a local artificat of history, but it does not stand to argue that a state which delivered some of the highest net margins for McCAin will have flipped in nine months politically. 

The Gallup Polling is seductive, but I think it is a false allure as we have more solid revealed preferences in the 2008 election and the knowledge that identification is a lagging indicator of behavior to knock several seats off the plausibly competetive list short of an incumbent taking a wide-stance or freezing a brick of cash in the kitchen.