By Dave Anderson:
Just a couple of short notes and half form thoughts on local finance.
The Pittsburgh slots parlor opened this weekend. They are crowing about a $1.3 million dollar net revenue opening eighteen hours. Assuming that is the average cash flow rate, the casino is projected to take in $630 million in the next twelve months. That assumption is wrong on its face as this was cash flow from a "good" day as it was a special event with "stored" crowds ready for the opening of the doors. I have a hard time thinking that anyone is thinking that cash flow will be similiar on Tuesday nights in January. Thankfully the casino operators are actually projecting only this is a decline in revenue projections from the initial application, as the CBA assumed $427 million dollars in stabilized year revenue in 2005 dollars, which roughly translates to $470 million in 2009 dollars. Some of this is due to fewer machines being installed. Questions about the size and optimism behind revenue estimates have been floating out there for over a year now. The big take-away is that the 55% state/local tax take will be a bit smaller than everyone has been counting on.
The Carnegie Library of Pittsburgh is in fiscal trouble. The system is projected to run a $3.1 million dollar deficit next year. The Library is heavily funded by the Regional Asset District (RAD), which is an additional 1% sales tax in Allegheny County. The Library's plan to resolve the deficit is to ask for more money from RAD. RAD is currently withholding current year grants. So far RAD sales tax revenue is down 2.7% for the year, and down 6.5% for May, year over year. Due to their reporting system, their reports are a lagging indicator as the data is just beginning to capture the spring cliff-diving. There ain't no money in RAD.
Finally, Open Stage Theatre in Pittsburgh is going dark for at least the first half of next season while their board tries to figure out a viable business plan. Their revenue streams were a combination of earned revenue from ticket sales and donations, some from individuals and some from foundations and other institutional supporters. Those revenue streams have collapsed. There ain't no money there either.
There are no current magical pots of money out there at the local level that will stave off large cuts in services, essential and non-essential but high value add. It is imperative for local budgetary authorities to realize that as the pots of money at the end of the casino rainbow will either be smaller than anticipated or are already pre-committed, and there is no one else left to raid and shift costs off the books.
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