By Steve Hynd
The UK's Independent is reporting leaks from within the Afghan government that General Stanley McChrystal will ask for a major increase in the U.S. troop presence there. (h/t Derrick Crowe)
The commander of Nato forces in Afghanistan will ask for 20,000 more international troops as part of his new strategic plan for the alliance's war against a resurgent Taliban, The Independent has learned.
...General McChrystal, tasked with turning the tide in the battle against the insurgency on the ground, has given a presentation of his draft report to senior Afghan government figures in which he also proposes raising the size of the Afghan army and police force.
...According to General McChrystal's draft plan, the number of Afghan troops would rise from 88,000 to 250,000, and the police force from 82,000 to 160,000 by 2012. These increases are higher than expected, with previous suggestions that the totals would be raised to 134,000 and 120,000 for the army and police respectively.
...Diplomatic sources have also revealed that plans are being drawn up to sign a "compact" between Afghanistan and the US which will reiterate Washington's commitment to the security of Afghanistan while the Afghan government pledges to combat corruption and reinforce governance. Unlike previous international agreements over Afghanistan, the compact will be bilateral, without any other governments being involved. The timing of the agreement is due to coincide with a visit by Mr Karzai to New York, if, as expected, he emerges the election winner.
The U.S. has to know that any such promise by Karzai would be worthless. He looks set to win an incredibly crooked election with a stage managed, slowly increasing, share of the vote - his lead is now 16% with a third of the very low turnout officially tallied, up from 3% on Tuesday and 9% on Wednesday - and the strongest Karzai supporting areas have yet to be tallied. The government's legitimacy is almost non-existant. Most of his senior cabinet, including his own brother, are hip-deep in drugs trafficking and graft. Even the U.S. is funding the Taliban via protection money paid by contractors (h/t Kat).
And D.C.'s commitment to Afghan security looks worthless beyond the cities too. For one thing, the tribal militias, or arbakai, supposed to be a component of an Iraq-style Surge (tm), are as bad or worse than the Taliban.
"These arbakai take food from villagers by force and taxes by force. My relatives went several times to complain to the authorities. When the arbakai found out, they beat my relatives. So they joined the Taliban to keep their prestige and honor," said Mohammad Ghulam, deputy director of the district's agricultural high school. "Now they are fighting the government."
That's in the Northern district of Baghlan-i-Jadid, a previously quiet area astride the US military's much-vaunted new supply route through the former Soviet republics. It's not quiet now.
The insurgents now control three Pashtun-dominated districts in Kunduz and Baghlan-i-Jadid, a foothold in a region that was long considered safe. With a force estimated at 300 to 600 hard-core fighters, they operate checkpoints at night on the highway to the north, now a major supply route, local officials said, and are extorting money, food and lodging from villagers.
...The Taliban "have become stronger in the last five to six months," said Gul Agha, who heads Baghlan-i-Jadid's criminal investigation department. "Before, they moved in very small groups. Now they are moving in groups of 30 to 40 and they have a leader of each group. They have a (shadow) governor, district leaders and recruiters."
The senior U.S. intelligence official confirmed that the Taliban have set up "shadow governments," a tactic they've used to exercise control elsewhere in Afghanistan by punishing crimes and settling feuds that usually linger in corrupt, incompetent government institutions and courts.
Agha said that the insurgents "have influence" in all of Baghlan-i-Jadid's 268 villages, nestled amidst lush groves and rice paddies fed by the Southern Salang River, and that the local administration's authority doesn't extend beyond the district center of the same name.
The Vietnamization of the Af/Pak conflict continues apace, with no happy ending in sight.
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