No Win?

Commentary By Ron Beasley

When Sonia Sotomayor was sworn in yesterday it was a double loss for the Republicans.  Yes, by opposing her the all but eliminated any possibility they could get a piece of the growing hispanic pie but just as important by opposing a middle of the road nominee with corporate leanings they also eliminated any possibility of having any input when Obama makes his next selection(s).  The result will be nominees further to the left.

I have seen the health care debate as another no win for the Republicans.  David Frum agrees:

What would it mean to �win� the health care fight?

For some, the answer is obvious: beat back the president�s proposals, defeat the House bill, stand back and wait for 1994 to repeat itself.

The problem is that if we do that� we�ll still have the present healthcare system. Meaning that we�ll have (1) flat-lining wages, (2) exploding Medicaid and Medicare costs and thus immense pressure for future tax increases, (3) small businesses and self-employed individuals priced out of the insurance market, and (4) a lot of uninsured or underinsured people imposing costs on hospitals and local governments.

We�ll have entrenched and perpetuated some of the most irrational features of a hugely costly and under-performing system, at the expense of entrepreneurs and risk-takers, exactly the people the Republican party exists to champion.

Not a good outcome.

Even worse will be the way this fight is won: basically by convincing older Americans already covered by a government health program, Medicare, that Obama�s reform plans will reduce their coverage. In other words, we�ll have sent a powerful message to the entire political system to avoid at all hazards any tinkering with Medicare except to make it more generous for the already covered.

If we win, we�ll trumpet the success as a great triumph for liberty and individualism. Really though it will be a triumph for inertia. To the extent that anybody in the conservative world still aspires to any kind of future reform and improvement of America�s ossified government, that should be a very ashy victory indeed.

The current health care system is broken and becoming more dysfunctional every day.  As the economy improves and people return to work more and more of them are going to find their new jobs don't include health insurance and for many if not most purchasing their own insurance won't be an option.  In one, two or three years the pressure for reform will be so great that Obama's current proposal will look like unbridled free enterprise - yes, the pressure will grow for single payer.

Of course Mr Frum is indeed a voice in the wilderness, Just read this and this.

I for one would rather see no health care bill this year than a watered down bi-partisan one.  Things are only going to get worse which improves the odds of a good solution.