By Dave Anderson:
These are some initial thoughts on the Sestak and Specter Senate primary race after a very involved morning covering each candidate's pitch to the Netroots Nation crowd, talking to campaign staffers for both candidates, speaking with other activitsts and bloggers, and speaking off the record with numerous political operatives who will be mobilizing for the May 2010 primary. These are not fully formed thoughts yet but initial reactions.
- There is a good chance that this race will create a fairly serious divide in the reasonably well functioning netroots-labor alliance that worked well in the Lamont and Edwards primary campaign. If Specter votes labor's way on a few large issues in the next three months, Labor's institutional support will go his way. Labor has indicated that they are willing to take 80% wins and back Specter on those. At the same time, the netroots side of the equation are heavily leaning Sestak on generic and genetic make-up. The non-labor netroots side of the coalition don't have quite as much expertise as say ISW or SEIU in running a ground campaign, but we definately have that capacity.
- Specter is in serious trouble. Both Research 2K and Rasmussen have Specter in a far weaker position than Joe Lieberman was at an identical point in the 2006 cycle.
Joe Sestak really needs a good media/presentation coach. He is good to very good in one on few and small group interactions as he has passion, intelligence and a nice ability to stay on message with a bit of gentility. However once he is speaking to more than ~10 people, he gets both long-winded and gives off vibes of being a little out of place. He has the cash on hand to spend a couple of thousand bucks on this and would get good value
Sestak's primary argument will be that people can both trust his word and trust his principals. He'll contrast himself with "Say Anything Arlen" (my words, not his). Sestak will also argue that the American governing institutions have been failing to uphold the social and political contract and that repetition of the same old same old won't be effective. Specter's basic argument is that he can bring home the bacon as well as he has been a secret liberal for most of his life (that is slightly unfair, but not by much)
Sestak I think has a better travelling campaign group. Specter's people are mostly new, comparatively inexperienced and don't know him well (to be expected as his old campaign crew was composed of Republicans).
I'm leaning towards voting for Sestak, but I still need to make up my mind on the activism end.
Well said, Dave. I concur with your assessment, having observed their respective interviews.
ReplyDeleteSestak has potential to be impressive; Specter may ultimately appear winsome, but wiser persons may be on to his narcissistic, tiresome and inauthentic ways.
Am listening this evening to Ron Reagan-- who is still down at Netroots. I, for one, am comfortably numb at home.
Rather awesome blog work, by the way--and very nice to meet you.