By Dave Anderson:
The LA Times reports on the shrinking Mexico economy:
The U.S. recession has hit Mexico hard by drying up a market for automobiles and other manufactured goods. Economists project that the Mexican economy will shrink by 7% or so this year, a major drop.
The U.S. downturn has also cut cash transfers sent home by migrants north of the border, one of Mexico's biggest sources of foreign income.
Remittances have been shrinking (as well as undocumented immigration) as the low skill jobs in the US economy (general labor for construction, restaurants, land-scaping etc) are either drying up in their entirity or are seeing significant native-born competition as people shift down the economic ladder. Light and medium manufacturing for export is drying up because the American consumer is tapped out and is actually retiring net debt for the first extended period in my life. Mexico's government is facing a cash flow problem.
Now throw in the fact that the smart hedge that PEMEX and the Mexican government took last year which guaranteed a minimal price of $70 per barrel of oil sold is set to expire in the next few months, there could be problems. Right now oil is at $67 per barrel without any discounts for quality or transit, and the end of the summer driving season is near, so we should expect a drop in oil prices soon. Mexico's government receives about a third of its revenue from oil, so with the hedge expiring in November, it could see another significant revenue hit.
An additional factor that you might consider in categorizing Mexico's economic problems is the role of China. China's essentially zero labor rate leaves. That leaves little space for Mexico's export goods to the United States but, even more importantly, it squeezes out Mexico's domestic consumption as well.
ReplyDeleteThat's an even bigger problem for the Mexicos than it is for the United States.