Sanction Stupidity

By Dave Anderson:

Senator Dodd (D-CT) is set to be an idiot by introducing additional sanction legislation into the Senate this week. The sanctions will target Iran's oil industry and refined product imports. Dow Jones gives us the details:

"I intend to introduce legislation that will arm the administration with the ability to impose tough, targeted sanctions if Iran does not respond to our final diplomatic effort in the coming weeks," Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., said in a statement....

Dodd's announcement also follows a similar commitment from the House Foreign Affairs Chairman Howard Berman, D-Calif., last week to pass tougher sanctions laws.

"There can be no doubt in anyone's mind that Iran has been lying to the international community for years about its allegedly peaceful nuclear intentions," Berman said. "[The] news reinforces my determination to bring the Iran Refined Petroleum Sanctions Act before the Foreign Affairs Committee for consideration next month."

Berman's bill would authorize a petroleum blockade against Iran, targeting one of the country's weak points. Although the nation is one of the top producers of crude oil, it's limited refining capacity means that it has to import a major chunk of its gasoline and diesel needs.

This is stupid and counterproductive for two reasons. The first is if the goal is to isolate and impose political costs for nuclear ambitions among the domestic Iranian political choice space, the hardliners are strengthened whenever a distrusted outsider is perceived to be a bully. The second reason why this is amazingly stupid is that it will not work.

Targeted sanctions, or denial of Iran's refined petroleum imports sounds like a great idea. It has been floating in policy circles for years as a clever, short of war, but highly coercive and potentially crippling club to beat the Iranian economy to a pulp. And hell, it would not require any US ground troops, as the sanctions could be enforced by the US Navy. The hawkiest version of this plan would be to bomb Iran's domestic refineries and then blockade refined product delivery which would lead to a complete crippling of Iran's modern economy. Clever, but there is one crippling assumption in this --- it assumes that no major power will be opposed to such a blockade.

Ian Welsh noted yesterday that China has begun to export refined petroleum products to Iran. This is in addition to the normal Iranian supply route from Indian refineries. China's foreign policy goals over the past generation have been simple and direct; non-inteference in internal matters as a first principle, and reliable access to resources and materials.

If China is not willing to sign onto sanctions, and why would it given past history and current goals, as well as future resource needs, then the only way to enforce the sanctions on Iran is with a full-scale naval blockade of Iran's oil ports. That is a direct act of war in and of itself against Iran; and at some point, the logical conclusion would be for US forces to either fire upon or seize Chinese flagged ships --- which again is a causus belli.

So additional sanctions are domestic political masteurbation at best.