Connor Friedersdorf takes a shot at predicting which Republican might be successful at beating Barack Obama in 2012:
My
somewhat uninformed guesses: David Petraeus and Colin Powell (who�d
have all kinds of difficulty winning the primary). These accomplished
generals share one related trait: deep credibility as men who are
serious about national security, enabling them to run as sane,
experienced stewards, rather than bellicose idiots so desperate to seem
toughest on terrorism that they spend the primaries calling for
�doubling Gitmo� and competing to see who would torture in more
contrived ticking time bomb situations.
I�m
sure there are other candidates who could also mount a credible
challenge, though I don�t know who they are. Folks who can�t unseat
President Obama, in my quite fallible opinion: Mitt Romney, who might
actually make a good president, Sarah Palin, who wouldn�t, Ron Paul,
who the American people would never elect, and Mike Huckabee, who would
spend lots of money at home and abroad.
Obviously,
2012 is a ways off. And Republicans should be thankful for that. I
understand why Friedersdorf picked Petraeus and Powell as good
choices. Their persona's as serious men with integrity, principles and
a temperate world view make them obvious choices. But Gen. Petraeus'
politics are unknown and he could as easily be a Democrat as he could
be a Republican. Colin Powell seems very unlikely; he was
just eviscerated by the conservative base when he endorsed Barack
Obama's presidential bid. Fat chance, as Friedersdorf notes, that Gen
Powell could ever get through the Republican primaries and secure the
nomination.
The Republicans are in the unenviable position now of
having a very, very shallow bench. They have a couple other
significant problems as well. The Party's base has become increasingly
radicalized and they're unlikely to vote in a Republican primary for
any candidate who is foolish enough to appear moderate on the big
issues. And, at least at this point, there's no one in the GOP with
sufficient charisma to convince a significant number of the
Independents required to win a general election that a little crazed
fanaticism and reckless economic policy is just what the country needs.
If the question is narrowed to which Republican could take the Party's
nomination, I wouldn't bet against Sarah Palin. Polls indicate there's
a small but dedicated group within the GOP that still hopes she runs.
But unless something very dramatic happens between now and November
2012, either in terms of Barack Obama or Sarah Palin, I just don't see
how she could ever win the general election. (Jeez, a shudder just ran
up my back.)
Kudos to Connor Friedersdorf for taking the shot. But I think he's missed.
However shallow their bench is, the candidate they choose will be buoyed by the the cheerleading of a complicit corporate media. They will enjoy a distorted reality shaped in their favor which ignores all faults. At the same time unrelenting evil fictions will be formed and cast at a Democratic opponent.
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