By Steve Hynd
Prof Robert Jervis examines the arguments against withdrawal from Afghanistan and concludes:
once we move beyond the alluring but unsustainable claim that our inability to exclude the possibility that withdrawing would be very harmful means that we must fight, it becomes clear that we are building a large and risky war on predictions that call for closer examination.
It's one of those "read the whole thing" pieces. (h/t Marc Lynch)
I think that Jervis's article was weak, not the least in that it depends on the binary victory/withdraw logic or at least tantalizes us with it.
ReplyDeleteThere's a range of alternatives between Jeffersonian democracy in central Asia and a return to the status quo ante. In my view the question is one of means and ends. We've got to tailor our means very carefully to the ends we want to achieve, limiting ourselves to ends that are actually achievable.
As you know, I don't think that COIN as a means can accomplish an Afghanistan capable of preventing a re-establishment of the Taliban and, subsequently, the return of Al Qaeda bases to Afghanistan. However, I do think that worst case scenario can be accomplished by significantly more limited alternatives than full bore COIN would represent.