Commentary By Ron Beasley
Yesterday Dave discussed the South and how it relates to the 2010 elections. Today Ron Brownstein takes a look at the Demographics of midterm elections and how 2010 could be a fleeting GOP boost.
Republicans may do very well in the midterms without solving their demographic challenges.
In midterm elections, the electorate tends to be whiter and older than in presidential elections. ABC polling director Gary Langer has calculated that since 1992 seniors have cast 19 percent of the vote in midterm elections, compared with just 15 percent in presidential years. That difference contributed to the 1994 landslide that swept the GOP into control of both the House and Senate. Seniors had cast just 13 percent of the vote in Bill Clinton's 1992 victory, but that figure spiked to nearly 19 percent two years later, with voting by the young people who had bolstered Clinton falling off sharply.
For minorities, the pattern isn't as consistent. They actually cast a slightly larger share of the vote in 1994 and 1998 than in the immediately preceding presidential elections. But, more recently, in both the 2002 and 2006 midterms, minorities represented a slightly smaller share of the vote than they had in the previous presidential elections.
These trends may be especially troublesome for Democrats next year.
The Republican base - old white people - are more likely to show up and vote in midterm elections. While it will be bad for the Democrats in 2010 it could be even worse for the Republicans going forward. It will be seen as a vindication for the teabagger conservatives and eliminate any need to attract the growing young and minority population. In 2012 when the young and minorities return to the polls the result will be similar to 2008.
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