By Steve Hynd
Five more years of fighting. That's the best case scenario in Afghanistan according to Sir David Richards, head of the British Army, in a BBC interview reported via the Daily Telegraph:
�I�d say we have got five years of declining violence � and then we�ll go into a supporting role.�
He added: �If we get it right, our estimation is that by about 2011, 2012 you�ll see an appreciable improvement. And by about 2014, we will ramp down our numbers as they ramp up and you�ll start to reduce the overall risks of the operation.
However, he admitted: �It is an ambitious target.�
Ministers have previously suggested that British numbers could start to fall more quickly.
Discussing troop levels in August, Bob Ainsworth, the Defence Secretary, said that �in the next year or so we will be able to show a degree of progress� in Afghanistan.
Earlier this year Sir David sparked political controversy by suggesting that Britain may have to support Afghanistan for another 40 years to deliver stability in the country.
But everything we've seen so far indicates that neither the UK nor the US is any much good at translating paper concepts into reality on the ground. So maybe we'd better just double that estimate. At least.
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