Iran Fails To Accept Draft Deal (Updated)

By Steve Hynd

News agencies are reporting that Iran has failed to accept the IAEA's draft deal and has instead made a counteroffer to buy the medium-enriched fuel it needs for its research reactor. Obviously, that's a non-starter for the other parties to these talks, as it would mean Iran's existing uranium stockpile would remain intact.

I'm very disappointed over this news - I honestly thought Iran would accept, given the signals its negotiating team were sending. But I'm not sure this is the end of the story. Iran hawks in the West will want it to be, and I expect unPresident McCain and the rest to renew their calls for crippling sanctions and bombing campaigns on today's news shows, saying that it shows Iran is untrustable and is just playing for time.

That would be one interpretation and right now I'm not so sure that they're wrong as I usually am. But another would be that the other parties' insistence that France be included in the draft deal is what sank it. France has been very hawkish in its public pronouncements about Iran, as much so as the old Bush administration or Israel. Given that, Iran's negotiation team made it very clear that their nation did not regard France as a trustable partner for any deal and now their superiors have made it clear they don't think so either.

It's possible that the IAEA deal is rescuable if France is taken out and another nation with similiar fuel-rod fabrication abilities - Argentina, for instance - is put in. Whether the IAEA and the various nations around the table will even try that remains to be seen.

I often get the nasty feeling that trying to play high-stakes poker with a haggling culture is a losing proposition for both.

Update: niacINsight writes:

We�re hearing more and more that the reports about Iran �turning down� the proposed deal are unofficial, and as such should be treated with a very healthy dose of skepticism.  Iran�s official response is still pending, though it appears Tehran might try to prolong the deadline for a yes or no answer to next week.

The Obama administration acknowledged that they are only interested in Iran�s official response last night in the State Department�s daily press briefing with spokesman Ian Kelly:

I�m sure there are a lot of voices in Tehran right now, but we�re going to wait for that authoritative answer tomorrow.

Update 2: And here we go -  Iran will give an answer next week. That really does look like it's just playing silly buggers. Damn. The thing is, I still don't think Iran is "playing for time" so they can build a nuke. I think it's a fundamental disconnect between bargaining cultures.